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Measuring the Behavioral Component of Financial Fluctuations: An Analysis Based on the S&P 500

Author

Listed:
  • Massimiliano Caporin

    (University of Padova)

  • Luca Corazzini

    (University of Padova)

  • Michele Costola

    (University Ca’ Foscari of Venice)

Abstract
We study the evolution of the behavioral component of the financial market by estimating a Bayesian mixture model in which two types of investors coexist: one rational, with standard subjective expected utility theory (SEUT) preferences, and one behavioral, endowed with an S-shaped utility function. We perform our analysis by using monthly data on the constituents of the S&P 500 index from January 1962 to April 2012. We assume that agents take investment decisions by ranking the alternative assets according to their performance measures. A tuning parameter blending the rational and the behavioral choices can be estimated by using a criterion function. The estimated parameter can be interpreted as an endogenous market sentiment index. This is confirmed by a number of checks controlling for the correlation of our endogenous index with measures of (implied) financial volatility, market sentiments and financial stress. Our results confirm the existence of a significant behavioral component that reaches its peaks during periods of recession. Moreover, after controlling for a number of covariates, we observe a significant correlation between the estimated behavioral component and the S&P 500 return index.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimiliano Caporin & Luca Corazzini & Michele Costola, 2014. "Measuring the Behavioral Component of Financial Fluctuations: An Analysis Based on the S&P 500," CREATES Research Papers 2014-33, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2014-33
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    File URL: https://repec.econ.au.dk/repec/creates/rp/14/rp14_33.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Expectations, Price Fluctuations and Lorenz Attractor," MPRA Paper 89105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New essentials of economic theory II. Economic transactions, expectations and asset pricing," MPRA Paper 93428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Michele Costola & Massimiliano Caporin, 2016. "Rational Learning For Risk-Averse Investors By Conditioning On Behavioral Choices," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-26, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment decision; behavioral agents; mixture model; behavioral expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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