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Система прогнозирования и оценивания параметров бюджетной политики Казахстана на основе международного опыта // The system for forecasting and evaluating the parameters of the budgetary policy of Kazakhstan based on international experience

Author

Listed:
  • Жузбаев Адам // Zhuzbayev Adam

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

Abstract
Был изучен и применен к Казахстану международный опыт прогнозирования показателей фискальной политики и определения направленности фискальной политики. Построение прогнозов налоговых поступлений осуществлялось на основе трех методов: эффективная налоговая ставка; подход, основанный на эластичности изменения налоговых поступлений к налоговой базе; уравнения связки на основе множественной регрессии. // International experience of forecasting indicators and determining the direction of fiscal policy was studied and applied to Kazakhstan. Tax revenue forecasts were made on the basis of three methods: effective tax rate; approach based on the elasticity of tax change receipts to the tax base; bridge equations based on multiple regression.

Suggested Citation

  • Жузбаев Адам // Zhuzbayev Adam, 2019. "Система прогнозирования и оценивания параметров бюджетной политики Казахстана на основе международного опыта // The system for forecasting and evaluating the parameters of the budgetary policy of Kaza," Working Papers #2019-1, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    • Handle: RePEc:aob:wpaper:16
    as

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    File URL: https://nationalbank.kz/file/download/9010
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Automatic stabilizers; GDP deflator; GDP; tax revenues; operational balance; budget expenditures; fiscal impulse; fiscal policy; Buoyancy; ETR; OLS; RMSE; автоматические стабилизаторы; дефлятор ВВП; ВВП; налоговые поступления; операционное сальдо; затраты бюджета; фискальный импульс; фискальная политика;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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