[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/amu/wpaper/2011-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Contributions of economists to the housing-price bubble

Author

Listed:
  • Martha A. Starr
Abstract
After the bursting of the housing-price bubble in 2006 and ensuing financial crisis, there has been much discussion of what economists could have done differently to help avert the crisis and "Great Recession" that followed. One dimension of this concerns information supplied by economists to the general public about causes of high appreciation in home prices and their likely future course, as good information could have helped the public hedge their finances against downside risks while bad information may have encouraged them to take on too much risk. This paper analyzes data from 24 California newspapers on assessments and predictions offered by economists as to whether bubbles were forming in the state's housing markets. In brief, we find that the California public was fairly decently served by economists offering their views via the media -- although with some significant problems of biased forecasts not made in good faith, and of inattention to concerns about "harm avoidance" that ought to apply when economists share their opinions in this way.

Suggested Citation

  • Martha A. Starr, 2011. "Contributions of economists to the housing-price bubble," Working Papers 2011-03, American University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:amu:wpaper:2011-03
    DOI: 10.17606/0fvp-6r81
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.17606/0fvp-6r81
    File Function: First version, 2011
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17606/0fvp-6r81?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Author-Name: Alan S. Blinder & Alan B. Krueger, 2004. "What Does the Public Know about Economic Policy, and How Does It Know It?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(1), pages 327-397.
    2. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    3. Ernst Fehr & Urs Fischbacher, "undated". "Third Party Punishment and Social Norms," IEW - Working Papers 106, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    4. Gerald Epstein & Jessica Carrick-Hagenbarth, 2010. "Financial Economists, Financial Interests and Dark Corners of the Meltdown: It’s Time to Set Ethical Standards for the Economics Profession," Working Papers wp239_revised, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    5. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, January.
    6. Michael Mandel, 2004. "Comments on Economic Education and Journalism," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 412-414, October.
    7. Engelberg, Joseph & Manski, Charles F. & Williams, Jared, 2009. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 30-41.
    8. Martha A. Starr (ed.), 2011. "Consequences of Economic Downturn," Perspectives from Social Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-11835-5, June.
    9. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    10. Margaret Hwang Smith & Gary Smith, 2006. "Bubble, Bubble, Where's the Housing Bubble?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(1), pages 1-68.
    11. Tilman Ehrbeck & Robert Waldmann, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40.
    12. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
    13. Jan Kregel, 2008. "Using Minsky's Cushions of Safety to Analyze the Crisis in the U. S. Subprime Mortgage Market," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 3-23.
    14. Law, Marc T. & Kim, Sukkoo, 2005. "Specialization and Regulation: The Rise of Professionals and the Emergence of Occupational Licensing Regulation," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 723-756, September.
    15. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
    16. Alan Blinder & Alan Krueger, 2004. "What Does the Public Know about Economic Policy, and How Does It Know It?," Working Papers 875, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    17. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2010. "Reasonable people did disagree : optimism and pessimism about the U.S. housing market before the crash," Public Policy Discussion Paper 10-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    18. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    19. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77.
    20. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809.
    21. Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2004. "Advising Policymakers through the Media," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 395-406, October.
    22. Cynthia Bansak & Martha A. Starr, 2011. "Who Pays the Price When Housing Bubbles Burst? Evidence from the American Community Survey," Perspectives from Social Economics, in: Martha A. Starr (ed.), Consequences of Economic Downturn, chapter 0, pages 139-165, Palgrave Macmillan.
    23. Masahiro Ashiya, 2009. "Strategic bias and professional affiliations of macroeconomic forecasters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 120-130.
    24. James Crotty, 2009. "Structural causes of the global financial crisis: a critical assessment of the 'new financial architecture'," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 33(4), pages 563-580, July.
    25. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 2004. "Maximizing the Substance in the Soundbite: A Media Guide for Economists," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 370-382, October.
    26. repec:pri:cepsud:99blinderkrueger is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Martha A. Starr, 2011. "Beyond the Usual Economics," Perspectives from Social Economics, in: Martha A. Starr (ed.), Consequences of Economic Downturn, chapter 0, pages 1-21, Palgrave Macmillan.
    28. V. Tambovtsev., 2009. "Financial Crisis and Economics," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 1.
    29. Noreen, Eric, 1988. "The economics of ethics: A new perspective on agency theory," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 359-369, June.
    30. Author-Name: Alan S. Blinder & Alan B. Krueger, 2004. "What Does the Public Know about Economic Policy, and How Does It Know It?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(1), pages 327-397.
    31. Jane K. Dokko & Brian M. Doyle & Skander J. van den Heuvel & Michael T. Kiley & Jinill Kim & Shane M. Sherlund & Jae W. Sim, 2009. "Monetary policy and the housing bubble," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Economists did see the bubble coming
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-04-27 19:39:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Ramazzotti, 2013. "Shared economic thought and the neglect of social costs. Why progressive economists often stick to conventional wisdom," Working Papers 71-2013, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Dec 2015.
    2. Martha A. Starr, 2014. "Qualitative And Mixed-Methods Research In Economics: Surprising Growth, Promising Future," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 238-264, April.
    3. Eddison T. Walters, 2020. "Evidence From Data Analysis, Fifteen Developed Countries and the United States Home Prices Increase Between 1990 to 2006 Result of Advancement In Technology, Worldwide Economic Collapse and Great Rece," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(11), pages 114-114, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pascal Towbin & Mr. Sebastian Weber, 2015. "Price Expectations and the U.S. Housing Boom," IMF Working Papers 2015/182, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Jane K. Dokko & Brian M. Doyle & Skander J. van den Heuvel & Michael T. Kiley & Jinill Kim & Shane M. Sherlund & Jae W. Sim, 2009. "Monetary policy and the housing bubble," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Bennani, Hamza, 2018. "Media coverage and ECB policy-making: Evidence from an augmented Taylor rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 26-38.
    4. Graeme O'Meara, 2015. "Housing Bubbles and Monetary Policy: A Reassessment," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 46(4), pages 521-565.
    5. Michael Ehrmann & Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2017. "Consumers' Attitudes and Their Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 225-259, February.
    6. Dräger, Lena, 2023. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-713, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    7. Larsen, Vegard H. & Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Zhulanova, Julia, 2021. "News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 507-520.
    8. Maurizio Bovi, 2006. "Consumers Sentiment and Cognitive Macroeconometrics Paradoxes and Explanations," ISAE Working Papers 66, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    9. Ehrmann, M. & Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2014. "Consumer Attitudes and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations," Discussion Paper 2014-029, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. David-Jan Jansen & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "News Consumption, Political Preferences, and Accurate Views on Inflation," Research Papers in Economics 2017-03, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    11. Hamza Bennani, 2016. "Media Coverage and ECB Policy-Making: Evidence from a New Index," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-38, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Michael J. Lamla & Thomas Maag, 2012. "The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1325-1350, October.
    13. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah Lein, 2010. "The Euro Cash Changeover, Inflation Perceptions and the Media," KOF Working papers 10-254, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    14. Kenneth Kuttner & Ilhyock Shim, 2012. "Taming the Real Estate Beast: The Effects of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies on Housing Prices and Credit," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.),Property Markets and Financial Stability, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    15. Ryan Chahrour & Kristoffer Nimark & Stefan Pitschner, 2021. "Sectoral Media Focus and Aggregate Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 3872-3922, December.
    16. Luca Gambetti & Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli & Sarah Zoi, 2022. "Bad News, Good News: Coverage and Response Asymmetries," Working Paper 2022/8, Norges Bank.
    17. Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2013. "News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1045-1067, September.
    18. Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata & Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro, 2020. "Disagreements in Consumer Inflation Expectations: Empirical Evidence for a Latin American Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(2), pages 99-122, November.
    19. repec:zbw:bofism:2012_047 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Gisle J. Natvik, 2018. "Explaining the Boom–Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse‐Engineering Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1751-1783, December.
    21. Xu, Yingying & Liu, Zhixin & Ortiz, Jaime, 2018. "The relationship between media bias and inflation expectations in P.R. China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 402-412.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    JEL classification: R21; D31; D12; E32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Economic Logic blog

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:amu:wpaper:2011-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Meal (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.american.edu/cas/economics/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.