[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cth/wpaper/gru_2021_026.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Decentralization and Fiscal Multiplier in China

Author

Listed:
  • Fei Guo

    (Xian Jiaotong University)

  • Isabel Kit-Ming Yan

    (City University of Hong Kong)

Abstract
A fundamental aspect of China's transition to a market economy is the change of fiscal decentralization marked by the tax reform in 1993. This paper examines the effect of revenue and expenditure decentralization and their divergences on fiscal spending multipliers in China using nationally aggregate and provincial-level data from 1978 to 2017. Our investigations show that expenditure decentralization weakens the efficacy of spending policies, while revenue decentralization enhances the efficacy. Moreover, the divergence of revenue and expenditure decentralization has decreased the aggregate and provincial spending multipliers. The results are robust to the inclusion of off-budgetary expenditure and revenue, using different estimates of multipliers and different measures of fiscal decentralization, considering from a long-run perspective, and addressing the endogeneity issue.

Suggested Citation

  • Fei Guo & Isabel Kit-Ming Yan, 2021. "Fiscal Decentralization and Fiscal Multiplier in China," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_026, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    • Handle: RePEc:cth:wpaper:gru_2021_026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cb.cityu.edu.hk/ef/doc/GRU/WPS/GRU%232021-026%20Yan.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. G. Gulsun Arikan, 2004. "Fiscal Decentralization: A Remedy for Corruption?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 11(2), pages 175-195, March.
    3. Ding, Yi & McQuoid, Alexander & Karayalcin, Cem, 2019. "Fiscal decentralization, fiscal reform, and economic growth in china," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 152-167.
    4. Wen Zhang & Yangyang Zhang & Xinye Zheng & Li Zhang, 2019. "China’s Fiscal Multiplier and Its State Dependence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 87(2), pages 205-227, March.
    5. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
    6. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Santiago Lago-Peñas & Agnese Sacchi, 2017. "The Impact Of Fiscal Decentralization: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1095-1129, September.
    7. Jin, Jing & Zou, Heng-fu, 2005. "Fiscal decentralization, revenue and expenditure assignments, and growth in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 1047-1064, December.
    8. Zao Sun & Chun-Ping Chang & Yu Hao, 2017. "Fiscal decentralization and China’s provincial economic growth: a panel data analysis for China’s tax sharing system," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(5), pages 2267-2289, September.
    9. Qiao, Baoyun & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge & Xu, Yongsheng, 2008. "The tradeoff between growth and equity in decentralization policy: China's experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 112-128, April.
    10. La Porta, Rafael & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1999. "The Quality of Government," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 222-279, April.
    11. Enikolopov, Ruben & Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina, 2007. "Decentralization and political institutions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(11-12), pages 2261-2290, December.
    12. Jennifer T. Lai & Erin P.K. So & Isabel K.M. Yan, 2014. "Intergovernmental Fiscal Arrangements and Provincial Consumption Risk Sharing in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 45-58, May.
    13. Lan Nguyen & Sajid Anwar, 2011. "Fiscal decentralisation and economic growth in Vietnam," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 3-14.
    14. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    15. Michael Woodford, 2022. "Effective Demand Failures and the Limits of Monetary Stabilization Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1475-1521, May.
    16. Xin Wang & Yi Wen, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of government spending in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 416-446, August.
    17. Auerbach, Alan J. & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Murphy, Daniel, 2021. "Inequality, fiscal policy and COVID19 restrictions in a demand-determined economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Xie, Danyang & Zou, Heng-fu & Davoodi, Hamid, 1999. "Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth in the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 228-239, March.
    19. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
    20. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1996. "Federal Fiscal Constitutions: Risk Sharing and Moral Hazard," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 623-646, May.
    21. Emi Nakamura & J?n Steinsson, 2014. "Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from US Regions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 753-792, March.
    22. Zhang, Tao & Zou, Heng-fu, 1998. "Fiscal decentralization, public spending, and economic growth in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 221-240, February.
    23. Natacha Valla, 2020. "Boosting the Economic Recovery or Closing a Green Deal in Europe? Or Both?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(6), pages 350-352, November.
    24. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    25. Guilló, Maria Dolores & Perez-Sebastian, Fidel, 2015. "Neoclassical growth and the natural resource curse puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 423-435.
    26. Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Public investment: another (different) look," Working Papers 277, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    27. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(5), pages 416-416.
    28. Wallace E. Oates & Wallace E. Oates, 2004. "An Essay on Fiscal Federalism," Chapters, in: Environmental Policy and Fiscal Federalism, chapter 22, pages 384-414, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    29. Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge & Yedgenov, Bauyrzhan, 2020. "Identifying and disentangling the impact of fiscal decentralization on economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    30. Justin Yifu Lin & Zhiqiang Liu, 2000. "Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth in China," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(1), pages 1-21.
    31. Robert Price & Thai-Thanh Dang & Jarmila Botev, 2015. "Adjusting fiscal balances for the business cycle: New tax and expenditure elasticity estimates for OECD countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1275, OECD Publishing.
    32. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1994. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 600-621, June.
    33. Gang Guo, 2009. "China's Local Political Budget Cycles," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 621-632, July.
    34. Guo, Qingwang & Liu, Chang & Ma, Guangrong, 2016. "How large is the local fiscal multiplier? Evidence from Chinese counties," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 343-352.
    35. Akai, Nobuo & Sakata, Masayo, 2002. "Fiscal decentralization contributes to economic growth: evidence from state-level cross-section data for the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 93-108, July.
    36. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    37. Harry Kitchen & Melville McMillan & Anwar Shah, 2019. "Local Public Finance and Economics," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-21986-4, December.
    38. Yang, Zhou, 2016. "Tax reform, fiscal decentralization, and regional economic growth: New evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 520-528.
    39. Raveh, Ohad, 2011. "The Natural Resource Curse, Fiscal Decentralization, and Agglomeration Economies," MPRA Paper 29664, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1996. "Federal Fiscal Constitutions: Risk Sharing and Redistribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 979-1009, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge & Yedgenov, Bauyrzhan, 2020. "Identifying and disentangling the impact of fiscal decentralization on economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Sanz Labrador, Ismael & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2013. "Política fiscal y crecimiento económico: consideraciones microeconómicas y relaciones macroeconómicas," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5367, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    3. Thushyanthan Baskaran & Lars P. Feld & Jan Schnellenbach, 2016. "Fiscal Federalism, Decentralization, And Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(3), pages 1445-1463, July.
    4. Thushyanthan Baskaran & Lars P. Feld & Jan Schnellenbach, 2014. "Fiscal Federalism, Decentralization and Economic Growth: Survey and Meta-Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4985, CESifo.
    5. Burret, Heiko T. & Feld, Lars P. & Schaltegger, Christoph A., 2022. "Fiscal federalism and economic performance new evidence from Switzerland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Tristan Canare, 2021. "Decentralization and Development Outcomes: What Does the Empirical Literature Really Say?," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 237(2), pages 111-151, June.
    7. Li, Lei & Luo, Changtuo, 2023. "Does administrative decentralization promote outward foreign direct investment and productivity? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    8. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Santiago Lago-Peñas & Agnese Sacchi, 2017. "The Impact Of Fiscal Decentralization: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1095-1129, September.
    9. Manh‐Tien Bui & Thai‐Ha Le & Donghyun Park, 2023. "Impacts of fiscal decentralization on local development in Vietnam: A disaggregated analysis," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 3-31, January.
    10. Hammed Adetola Adefeso, 2014. "Local Decentralisation and Economic Growth in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 10(3), pages 102-115, June.
    11. Zao Sun & Chun-Ping Chang & Yu Hao, 2017. "Fiscal decentralization and China’s provincial economic growth: a panel data analysis for China’s tax sharing system," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(5), pages 2267-2289, September.
    12. Septimiu-Rares SZABO, 2017. "The Empirical Relationship Between Fiscal Decentralization And Economic Growth: A Review Of Variables, Models And Results," Management Research and Practice, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 9(2), pages 47-66, June.
    13. Whitney Buser, 2011. "The impact of fiscal decentralization on economics performance in high-income OECD nations: an institutional approach," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(1), pages 31-48, October.
    14. Brueckner, Jan K., 2006. "Fiscal federalism and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(10-11), pages 2107-2120, November.
    15. Zhiguo Wang & Liang Ma, 2014. "Fiscal Decentralization in China: A Literature Review," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 51-65, May.
    16. Lars P. Feld & Gebhard Kirchgässner & Christoph A. Schaltegger, 2004. "Fiscal Federalism and Economic Performance: Evidence from Swiss Cantons," Marburg Working Papers on Economics 200420, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    17. Lars P. Feld & Horst Zimmermann & Thomas Döring, 2004. "Federalism, Decentralization, and Economic Growth," Marburg Working Papers on Economics 200430, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    18. Kayode Olaide & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Josine Uwilingiye, 2022. "Sustainable Development–Fiscal Federalism Nexus: A “Beyond GDP” Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-37, May.
    19. Tristan Canare, 2022. "Decentralization and welfare: Evidence from a panel of countries," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(3), pages 767-796, September.
    20. Yongzheng Liu & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Alfred M. Wu, 2017. "Fiscal decentralization, equalization, and intra-provincial inequality in China," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(2), pages 248-281, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal decentralization; Government spending; Fiscal multiplier; Tax reform; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • R5 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cth:wpaper:gru_2021_026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: GRU (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decithk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.