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Chronic Excess Capacity and Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries. A Structural Approach

Author

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  • Federico Bassi

    (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
    Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

Abstract
We develop a structural method for identifying the unobservable rate of capacity utilization in 14 EU countries, by simultaneously estimating the coefficients of a production function, an investment function, a labor productivity function and an unemployment function. Our results provide evidence of chronic underutilization of productive capacity and hysteresis in unemployment, especially after the 2008’ financial crisis. We show that our series of the rate of capacity utilization are significant predictors of capacity accumulation, productivity growth and unemployment rates. Moreover, they predict inflation as efficiently as the DG ECFIN series of capacity utilization and output gaps.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Bassi, 2020. "Chronic Excess Capacity and Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries. A Structural Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def091, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctc:serie1:def091
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    File URL: http://dipartimenti.unicatt.it/economia-finanza-def091.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capacity utilization; Potential GDP; Output gap; Hysteresis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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