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Business Cycles with Free Entry Ruled by Animal Spirits

Author

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  • Lloyd-Braga, Teresa
  • Dos Santos Ferreira, Rodolphe
Abstract
The Paper approaches business cycles in terms of extrinsic uncertainty related, not to dynamic indeterminacy of intertemporal equilibria (in the neighborhood of an attractor) or to multiplicity of steady states (in non-linear models), but to static indeterminacy of free entry oligopolistic equilibria within each period. We consider an OLG economy in which firms, supplying differentiated goods within each one of many sectors, and producing under increasing returns-to-scale, compete in prices in perfectly contestable markets. The number of active firms is shown to vary across sectoral equilibria, depending upon the (correct) producers? conjectures on the actions of their competitors. These conjectures are assumed to be coordinated by some extrinsic Markov chain, thus generating endogenous shocks in both the markup factor and productivity, and resulting in perturbations of the dynamic system (as in the case of exogenous random shocks). Consumers? expectations may magnify the extrinsic uncertainty characterizing producers? conjectures. Since the source of fluctuations does not rely on dynamic indeterminacy, we can weaken the condition on the degree of increasing returns, which may be arbitrarily small (with a moderate positive elasticity of labour supply), provided goods substitutability within each sector becomes arbitrarily large.

Suggested Citation

  • Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Dos Santos Ferreira, Rodolphe, 2003. "Business Cycles with Free Entry Ruled by Animal Spirits," CEPR Discussion Papers 3919, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3919
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    Cited by:

    1. Pavlov, Oscar & Weder, Mark, 2012. "Variety matters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 629-641.
    2. Mauro Bambi & Alain Venditti, 2021. "Time‐varying consumption tax, productive government spending, and aggregate instability," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 17(2), pages 190-215, June.
    3. Thomas Seegmuller, 2005. "Steady state analysis and endogenous fluctuations in a finance constrained model," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v05029, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    4. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2014. "Market distortions and local indeterminacy: A general approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 216-247.
    5. Takashi Kamihigashi, 2017. "Regime-Switching Sunspot Equilibria in a One-Sector Growth Model with Aggregate Decreasing Returns and Small Externalities," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti & Nicholas C. Yannelis (ed.), Sunspots and Non-Linear Dynamics, chapter 0, pages 125-146, Springer.
    6. Vera Ivanova & Philip Ushchev, 2019. "Product Differentiation, Competitive Toughness, and Intertemporal Substitution," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(3), pages 1244-1269, July.
    7. Vera Ivanova & Philip Ushchev, 2015. "When Ricardo Meets Chamberlin: A Simple Dynamic Model Of Monopolistic Competition," HSE Working papers WP BRP 99/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    8. Frederic Dufourt & Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira, 2006. "Indeterminacy of Free Entry Equilibria: General Approach and Macroeconomic Applications," EcoMod2006 272100021, EcoMod.
    9. Cheng-wei Chang & Ching-chong Lai, 2021. "Optimal fiscal policies and market structures with monopolistic competition," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(6), pages 1385-1411, December.
    10. Maria José Gil-Moltó & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2012. "Industry Dynamics and Indeterminacy in an OLG Economy with Endogenous Occupational Choice," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/09, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, revised Sep 2012.
    11. Pavlov, Oscar & Weder, Mark, 2012. "Variety matters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 629-641.
    12. Chang Cheng-Wei & Lai Ching-Chong, 2017. "Macroeconomic (in)stability and endogenous market structure with productive government expenditure," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-16, April.
    13. Nicolas Abad, 2019. "Firms' Labor Market Power and Aggregate Instability," Working Papers hal-02329802, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Animal spirits; Sunspots; Oligopoly; Free entry; Indeterminacy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General

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