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Co-Fluctuations

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  • Imbs, Jean
Abstract
This paper provides novel evidence on the determinants of the synchronization in business cycles. I find trade has surprisingly small quantitative effects. On the other hand, pairs of countries with higher aggregate income level experience significantly more synchronized business cycles, and this happens largely because they have similar sectoral production patterns. Geographic considerations do not matter systematically. The results hold for a large sample of countries with very different income levels, as well as within the OECD. They are robust to different filtering devices, across yearly and quarterly frequency and for a variety of data sources. These findings are interpreted in a model where international income disparities correspond to differences in production patterns, and thus to different degrees of exposure to common sectoral stochastic developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Imbs, Jean, 1999. "Co-Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 2267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2267
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    Cited by:

    1. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2005. "Breaks in the Variability and Comovement of G-7 Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 721-740, November.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU," Working Paper Series rwp04-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    3. Luca De Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2003. "Economic integration, similarity and convergence in the EU and CEECs trade structures," KITeS Working Papers 148, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jul 2003.
    4. Bernd Süssmuth, 2002. "National and Supranational Business Cycles (1960-2000): A multivariate description of central G7 and EURO15 NIPA aggregates," CESifo Working Paper Series 658, CESifo.
    5. Faia, Ester, 2002. "Monetary policy in a world with different financial systems," Working Paper Series 0183, European Central Bank.
    6. Portes, Richard & Rey, Hélène, 2000. "The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows: The Geography of Information," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt51w4v95p, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    7. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 301-356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Pedro José Pérez & José Ramón García & Luisa Escriche, 2005. "Importancia De Las Perturbaciones Externas En La Economía Española Tras La Integración: ¿Tamaño Del Shock O Grado De Respuesta?," Working Papers. Serie EC 2005-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    9. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene, 2005. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 269-296, March.
    10. Salvador Barrios & Marius Brülhart & Robert J.R. Elliott & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co‐Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 265-292, June.
    11. Ansgar Belke & Jens Heine, 2006. "Specialisation patterns and the synchronicity of regional employment cycles in Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 91-104, November.
    12. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2008. "Should Eastern European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria," Working Paper Series rwp08-059, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    13. Mody, Ashoka & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 2007. "A cross-country financial accelerator: Evidence from North America and Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 149-165, February.
    14. Burstein, Ariel & Kurz, Christopher & Tesar, Linda, 2008. "Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 775-795, May.
    15. Luca Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2007. "Economic integration and similarity in trade structures," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 117-137, April.
    16. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
    17. Christian Volpe Martincus & Andrea Molinari, 2007. "Regional Business Cycles and National Economic Borders: What Are the Effects of Trade in Developing Countries?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(1), pages 140-178, April.
    18. Faia, Ester, 2002. "Monetary policy in a world with different financial systems," Working Paper Series 183, European Central Bank.
    19. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2002. "The trade comovement problem in international macroeconomics," Staff Reports 155, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Alejandro Justiniano, 2004. "Sources and Propagation Mechanims of Foreign Disturbances in Small Open Economies: A Dynamic Factor Analysis," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 148, Econometric Society.
    21. Imbs, Jean, 2000. "Sectors and the OECD Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 2473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2001. "International Trade and Business Cycles: Is Vertical Specialization the Missing Link?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 371-375, May.
    23. Jean IMBS, 1998. "Fluctuations, Bilateral Trade and the Exchange Rate Regime," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 9906, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie, revised Nov 1998.
    24. Demyanyk, Yuliya & Volosovych, Vadym, 2005. "Macroeconomic Asymmetry in the European Union: The Difference Between New and Old Members," CEPR Discussion Papers 4847, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Richard Portes & =20 H=E9l=E8ne Rey, 2001. "The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows: The Geography of=20 Information," International Finance 0012002, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Business Cycles; Sectoral Shocks; Trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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