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Zero Lower Bound on Inflation Expectations

Author

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  • Sergeyev, Dmitriy
  • Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
Abstract
We document a new fact: in U.S., European and Japanese surveys, households do not expect deflation, even in environments where persistent deflation is a strong possibility. This fact stands in contrast to the standard macroeconomic models with rational expectations. We extend a standard New Keynesian model with a zero-lower bound on inflation expectations. Unconventional monetary policies, such as forward guidance, are weaker. In liquidity traps, the government spending output multiplier is finite, and adverse aggregate supply shocks are not expansionary. The possibility of confidence-driven liquidity traps is attenuated.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergeyev, Dmitriy & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2021. "Zero Lower Bound on Inflation Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 16729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16729
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    Cited by:

    1. Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza, 2024. "Business Cycles when Consumers Learn by Shopping," Working Papers 2024-12, Banco de México.
    2. Lovisa Reiche, 2023. "That’s what she said: An Empirical Investigation on the Gender Gap in Inflation Expectations," Economics Series Working Papers 1025, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Andrade, Philippe & Gautier, Erwan & Mengus, Eric, 2023. "What matters in households’ inflation expectations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 50-68.
    4. Armantier, Olivier & Sbordone, Argia & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Williams, John C., 2022. "A new approach to assess inflation expectations anchoring using strategic surveys," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 82-101.
    5. Alistair Macaulay & James Moberly, 2022. "Heterogeneity in imperfect inflation expectations:theory and evidence from a novel survey," Economics Series Working Papers 970, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Mathieu Pedemonte & Hiroshi Toma & Esteban Verdugo, 2023. "Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations: The Role of Individual Experience," Working Papers 23-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2022. "The unbearable lightness of equilibria in a low interest rate environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1-17.
    8. NAKAJIMA, Jouchi, 2023. "Estimation of firms' inflation expectations using the survey DI," Discussion Paper Series 749, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Yusuke Takahashi & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2022. "Households' Perceived Inflation and CPI Inflation: the Case of Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    10. Caruso-Bloeck, Martin & Mello, Miguel & Ponce, Jorge, 2023. "News of disinflation and firms’ expectations: New causal evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    11. Christopher Gibbs & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 393-423, December.
    12. Lena Dräger & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke, 2022. "Political Shocks and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine," ifo Working Paper Series 371, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    13. Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation uncertainty," Discussion Papers 32/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Christopher Gibbs & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 393-423, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; Non-rational beliefs; Survey data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E7 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance

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