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Central Banks and Inflation: Where Do We Stand and How Did We Get Here?

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  • Whelan, Karl
Abstract
The inability of central banks to attain their target inflation rates in recent years has raised questions about the extent to which central banks can control the inflation process. This paper discusses the evolution of thought and evidence since the 1960s on the determinants of inflation and the role that should be played by central banks. The paper highlights the roles played by two streams of thought associated with Milton Friedman: Monetarist theories predicting a key role for monetary aggregates in determining inflation and the rise in popularity of the expectations-augmented Phillips curve. We discuss influence of the latter in determining the modern consensus on central bank institutions and the relative roles for fiscal and monetary policies. We conclude with a discussion of macroeconomic developments of the past decade and current policy options to stimulate the economy and restore inflation to its target levels, including the merits of “helicopter money†.

Suggested Citation

  • Whelan, Karl, 2021. "Central Banks and Inflation: Where Do We Stand and How Did We Get Here?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16557, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16557
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    2. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2013. "The Most Dangerous Idea in Federal Reserve History: Monetary Policy Doesn't Matter," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 55-60, May.
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    5. Sargent, Thomas J, 1971. "A Note on the 'Accelerationist' Controversy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 721-725, August.
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    7. Robert J. Gordon, 2018. "Friedman and Phelps on the Phillips curve viewed from a half century's perspective," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 6(4), pages 425-436, October.
    8. Nelson Edward, 2005. "The Great Inflation of the Seventies: What Really Happened?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-50, July.
    9. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1997. "Some Thoughts on Practical Stabilization Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 236-239, May.
    10. Robert J. Gordon, 2018. "Friedman and Phelps on the Phillips Curve Viewed from a Half Century's Perspective," NBER Working Papers 24891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
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    20. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Helmut Siekmann, 2023. "Inflation, Price Stability, and Monetary Policy: On the Legality of Inflation Targeting by the Eurosystem," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Frank Rövekamp & Moritz Bälz & Hanns Günther Hilpert & Wook Sohn (ed.), Inflation and Deflation in East Asia, chapter 0, pages 125-146, Springer.
    2. Jonung, Lars, 2022. "The Problems of Inflation Targeting Originate in the Monetary Theory of Knut Wicksell," Working Papers 2022:8, Lund University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; Central banks; Phillips curve; Milton friedman;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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