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The Real Effects of Bank Runs. Evidence from the French Great Depression (1930-1931)

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  • Monnet, Eric
  • ,
  • Ungaro, Stefano
Abstract
We investigate the causal impact of bank runs by exploiting a key feature of the French Great Depression (1930-1931) that created exogenous geographical variations in the withdrawals of bank deposits. Unregulated commercial banks coexisted with government-backed saving institutions (Caisses d’épargne). During the crisis, depositors who had an account in Caisses d’épargne were more likely to withdraw from banks. Pre-crisis density of Caisses d’épargne accounts was unrelated to economic and bank characteristics. Using this variable as an instrument, we find that a 1% decrease in bank branches reduced aggregate income by 1%. Our identification highlights how a shift of deposits towards safer institutions can affect financial fragility. It holds lessons for current financial regulation and the design of central bank digital currency (CBDC).

Suggested Citation

  • Monnet, Eric & , & Ungaro, Stefano, 2021. "The Real Effects of Bank Runs. Evidence from the French Great Depression (1930-1931)," CEPR Discussion Papers 16054, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16054
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    3. Cyril Monnet & Hyun Song Shin & Jon Frost & Leonardo Gambacorta & Raphael Auer & Tara Rice, 2022. "Central Bank Digital Currencies: Motives, Economic Implications, and the Research Frontier," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 697-721, August.
    4. Kristian Blickle & Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stephan Luck, 2022. "Who Can Tell Which Banks Will Fail?," NBER Working Papers 29753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Dionysopoulos, Lambis & Marra, Miriam & Urquhart, Andrew, 2024. "Central bank digital currencies: A critical review," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Mitchener, Kris James & Monnet, Eric, 2023. "Connected Lending of Last Resort," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 651, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    7. Henri Fraisse & Christophe Hurlin, 2024. "Modèles internes des banques pour le calcul du capital réglementaire (IRB) et intelligence artificielle," Débats économiques et financiers 44, Banque de France.
    8. Cyril Pouvelle., 2022. "An Analysis of Financial Conglomerate Resilience: A Perspective on bancassurance in France [Une analyse de la résilience des conglomérats financiers : Une perspective sur la bancassurance en France," Débats économiques et financiers 39, Banque de France.
    9. Giacomo Gabbuti, 2023. "Fiscal Sources and the Distribution of Income in Italy: The Italian Historical Taxpayers' Database," LEM Papers Series 2023/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank runs; Flight-to-safety; Banking panics; Great depression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-

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