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A Theory of Power Wars

Author

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  • Herrera, Helios
  • Morelli, Massimo
  • Nunnari, Salvatore
Abstract
This paper provides a theory of how war onset and war duration depend on the initial distribution of power when conflict triggers a reallocation of power but the loser is not eliminated. In the model, players take into account not only the expected consequences of war on the current distribution of resources, but also its expected consequences on the future distribution of military and political power. We highlight three main results: the key driver of war, in both the static and the dynamic game, is the mismatch between military and political power; dynamic incentives usually amplify static incentives, leading forward-looking players to be more aggressive; and a war is more likely to last for longer if political power is initially more unbalanced than military power and the politically under-represented player is militarily advantaged.

Suggested Citation

  • Herrera, Helios & Morelli, Massimo & Nunnari, Salvatore, 2019. "A Theory of Power Wars," CEPR Discussion Papers 13917, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13917
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    • Helios Herrera & Massimo Morelli & Salvatore Nunnari, 2020. "A Theory of Power Wars," Working Papers 669, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.

    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Giacomo Battiston & Matteo Bizzarri & Riccardo Franceschin, 2021. "Third-Party Interest, Resource Value, and the Likelihood of Conflict," CSEF Working Papers 631, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 20 Jun 2022.
    2. Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2023. "Natural resources and conflict: The crucial role of power mismatch and geographic asymmetries," Working Papers 698, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. Serhat Doğan & Kerim Keskin & Çağrı Sağlam, 2023. "Analyzing strategic behavior in a dynamic model of bargaining and war," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 233-257, December.

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    Keywords

    War duration; Balance of powers;

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