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Social Mobility in the Long Run: A Temporal Analysis of China from 1300 to 1900

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  • Shiue, Carol
Abstract
This paper studies intergenerational mobility with a population of families in central China over twenty generations. Employing genealogical data on individual lifetime achievements, I first find that while mobility was low initially there was a striking increase in mobility starting in the late 17th century. Through the lens of a Becker-Tomes (1979) model I explain this through a falling human capital earnings elasticity because the return to passing the civil service examinations, China’s most important pathway to office and income at the time, declined over time. Second, as predicted by the model times of high human capital earnings elasticity are times of high cross-sectional inequality. Third, parent human capital affects child income for any given nonhuman parental investment and is estimated to have 2/3 of the effect of nonhuman investments on child income. Moreover, educational inequality is even more strongly correlated with social persistence than income inequality. Finally, much of the observed increase in mobility is accounted for by lower differences in average clan income, consistent with the hypothesis that part of the earnings elasticity of human capital is group-specific.

Suggested Citation

  • Shiue, Carol, 2019. "Social Mobility in the Long Run: A Temporal Analysis of China from 1300 to 1900," CEPR Discussion Papers 13589, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13589
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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Keller & Carol H. Shiue, 2023. "Intergenerational Mobility of Daughters and Marital Sorting: New Evidence from Imperial China," NBER Working Papers 31695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ying Bai, 2022. "The Struggle For Existence: Migration, Competition, And Human Capital Accumulation In Historic China," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1239-1269, August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N35 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N45 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Asia including Middle East
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

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