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Hysteresis and the Welfare Effect of Corrective Policies: Theory and Evidence from an Energy-Saving Program

Author

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  • Gerard, François
  • JM Costa, Francisco
Abstract
A growing body of evidence documents that policies can affect household behaviors persistently, even if they are no longer in place. This paper studies the importance of such "hysteresis" - the failure of an effect to reverse itself as its underlying cause is reversed - for the welfare evaluation of corrective policies. First, we introduce hysteresis into the textbook framework used to derive canonical sufficient statistics formulas for the welfare effect of corrective policies. We then derive new formulas allowing for hysteresis. We show that, under certain conditions, the persistent effect of a short-run (i.e., temporary) policy becomes a new key statistic for evaluating the welfare effect of such a policy, and also of a long-run (i.e., permanent) version of a similar policy. Second, we estimate the persistent effect of a short-run policy, for which we argue that these conditions are met, in a policy-relevant context: residential electricity use in a developing country setting. We estimate that about half of the dramatic short-run reductions in residential electricity use induced by a 9-month-long policy that was imposed on millions of Brazilian households in 2001 persisted for at least 12 years after the policy ended. Finally, we combine our estimates with our framework to illustrate the implications that hysteresis can have for the welfare evaluation of corrective policies.

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  • Gerard, François & JM Costa, Francisco, 2018. "Hysteresis and the Welfare Effect of Corrective Policies: Theory and Evidence from an Energy-Saving Program," CEPR Discussion Papers 12916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12916
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    Cited by:

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    2. Browne, Oliver R. & Gazze, Ludovica & Greenstone, Michael & Rostapshova, Olga, 2022. "Man vs. Machine : Technological Promise and Political Limits of Automated Regulation Enforcement," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 646, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    3. Mattauch, Linus & Hepburn, Cameron & Spuler, Fiona & Stern, Nicholas, 2022. "The economics of climate change with endogenous preferences," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Javier D. Donna, 2021. "Measuring long‐run gasoline price elasticities in urban travel demand," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 52(4), pages 945-994, December.
    5. Mattauch, Linus & Hepburn, Cameron & Stern, Nicholas, 2018. "Pigou pushes preferences: decarbonisation and endogenous values," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-16, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    6. Costa, Francisco J M & Szerman, Dimitri & Assunção, Juliano, 2018. "Local Economic Impacts of Hydroelectric Power Plants: Evidence from Brazil," SocArXiv kzhs6, Center for Open Science.
    7. Donna, Javier D., 2018. "Measuring Long-Run Price Elasticities in Urban Travel Demand," MPRA Paper 90059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Cardella, Eric & Ewing, Brad & Williams, Ryan Blake, 2018. "Green is Good – The Impact of Information Nudges on the Adoption of Voluntary Green Power Plans," 2018 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2018, Jacksonville, Florida 266583, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. ITO Koichiro & ZHANG Shuang, 2020. "Reforming Inefficient Energy Pricing: Evidence from China," Discussion papers 20062, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Gilbert, Ben & Graff Zivin, Joshua S., 2020. "Dynamic corrective taxes with time-varying salience," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    11. Fetter, T. Robert, 2022. "Energy transitions and technology change: “Leapfrogging” reconsidered," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    12. Mathieu Lefebvre & Anne Stenger, 2020. "Short- & long-term effects of monetary and non-monetary incentives to cooperate in public good games: An experiment," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, January.
    13. Huse, Cristian & Lucinda, Claudio & Ribeiro, Andre, 2021. "Assessing the effects of a large temporary energy savings program: Evidence from a developing country," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    14. Cristian Huse & Claudio Lucinda, Andre Ribeiro, 2019. "The Impact of Incentives on the Energy Paradox: Evidence from Micro Data," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_39, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), revised 16 Oct 2019.
    15. Do,Quy-Toan & Jacoby,Hanan G., 2020. "Sophisticated Policy with Naive Agents : Habit Formation and Piped Water in Vietnam," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9207, The World Bank.
    16. Koichiro Ito & Shuang Zhang, 2020. "Do Consumers Distinguish Fixed Cost from Variable Cost? “Schmeduling" in Two-Part Tariffs in Energy," NBER Working Papers 26853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Chi L. Ta, 2021. "Theoretical and Empirical Evaluation of a Competitive Energy Rebate Program," CESifo Working Paper Series 8948, CESifo.
    18. Thiemo Fetzer & Oliver Pardo & Amar Shanghavi, 2018. "More than an urban legend: the short- and long-run effects of unplanned fertility shocks," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(4), pages 1125-1176, October.
    19. Mathieu Lefebvre & Anne Stenger, 2016. "Long-lasting effects of temporary incentives in public good games," Working Papers of BETA 2016-25, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    20. Ta, Chi L., 2020. "Does Competition for Energy Conservation Rebates Work?," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304245, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corrective policies; Hysteresis; Energy use;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

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