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Fiscal Consolidation Under Imperfect Credibility

Author

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  • Linde, Jesper
  • Lemoine, Matthieu
Abstract
This paper examines the effects of expenditure-based fiscal consolidation when credibility as to whether the cuts will be long-lasting is imperfect. We contrast the impact limited credibility has when the consolidating country has the means to tailor monetary policy to its own needs, with the impact when the country is a small member of a currency union with a negligible effect on interest rates and on nominal exchange rates of the currency union. We find two key results. First, in the case of an independent monetary policy, the adverse impact of limited credibility is relatively small, and consolidation can be expected to reduce government debt at a relatively low output cost given that monetary policy provides more accommodation than it would under perfect credibility. Second, the lack of monetary accommodation under currency union membership implies that the output cost may be significantly larger, and that progress in reducing government debt in the short and medium term may be limited under imperfect credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Linde, Jesper & Lemoine, Matthieu, 2016. "Fiscal Consolidation Under Imperfect Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 11404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11404
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    4. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Alesina, Alberto & Paradisi, Matteo & Barbiero, Omar, 2017. "The effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12016, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2023. "Fiscal stimulus in liquidity traps: Conventional or unconventional policies?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2017. "The effect of fiscal policy and forward guidance with preferences over wealth," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168070, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Ferrari, Alessandro & Landi, Valerio Nispi, 2022. "Will the green transition be inflationary? Expectations matter," Working Paper Series 2726, European Central Bank.
    8. Adler, Gustavo & Lama, Ruy & Medina, Juan Pablo, 2019. "Foreign exchange intervention and inflation targeting: The role of credibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Richard McManus & Gulcin Ozkan & Dawid Trzeciakiewicz, 2019. "Expansionary Contractions and Fiscal Free Lunches: Too Good To Be True?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(1), pages 32-54, January.
    10. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Jalles, João Tovar, 2022. "The (non-)Keynesian effects of fiscal austerity: New evidence from a large sample," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    11. Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2021. "State-dependent fiscal multipliers with preferences over safe assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1023-1040.
    12. Kollmann, Robert & Leeper, Eric & Roeger, Werner, 2016. "The Post-Crisis Slump," MPRA Paper 71291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Cuitiño, María Fernanda & Medina, Juan Pablo & Zacheo, Laura, 2022. "Conditional exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy credibility: Insights from Uruguay and Chile," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    14. Róbert Oravský & Peter Tóth & Anna Bánociová, 2020. "The Ability of Selected European Countries to Face the Impending Economic Crisis Caused by COVID-19 in the Context of the Global Economic Crisis of 2008," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-17, August.
    15. Cavalcanti, Marco A.F.H. & Vereda, Luciano & Doctors, Rebeca de B. & Lima, Felipe C. & Maynard, Lucas, 2018. "The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks under fiscal rules constrained by public debt sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 184-201.
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    17. Fernanda Cuitiño & Juan Pablo Medina & Laura Zacheo, 2021. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Conditional on Shocks and Monetary Policy Credibility. The Case of Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2021008, Banco Central del Uruguay.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary and fiscal policy; Front-loaded vs. gradual consolidation; Dsge model; Sticky prices and wages; Currency union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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