[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/10821.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Identification and Estimation of Preference Distributions When Voters Are Ideological

Author

Listed:
  • Merlo, Antonio
  • de Paula, Aureo
Abstract
This paper studies the nonparametric identification and estimation of voters' preferences when voters are ideological. We establish that voter preference distributions and other parameters of interest can be identified from aggregate electoral data. We also show that these objects can be consistently estimated and illustrate our analysis by performing an actual estimation using data from the 1999 European Parliament elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Merlo, Antonio & de Paula, Aureo, 2015. "Identification and Estimation of Preference Distributions When Voters Are Ideological," CEPR Discussion Papers 10821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10821
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP10821
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2002. "Political economics and public finance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1549-1659, Elsevier.
    2. Robert C. Feenstra & James A. Levinsohn, 1995. "Estimating Markups and Market Conduct with Multidimensional Product Attributes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(1), pages 19-52.
    3. Gallant, Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1989. "Seminonparametric Estimation of Conditionally Constrained Heterogeneous Processes: Asset Pricing Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1091-1120, September.
    4. Hibbs, Douglas A., 1977. "Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1467-1487, December.
    5. Newey, Whitney K, 1991. "Uniform Convergence in Probability and Stochastic Equicontinuity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 1161-1167, July.
    6. Spenkuch, Jörg, 2013. "On the Extent of Strategic Voting," MPRA Paper 50198, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Diermeier, Daniel & Feddersen, Timothy J., 1998. "Cohesion in Legislatures and the Vote of Confidence Procedure," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 92(3), pages 611-621, September.
    8. David Hartvigsen, 1992. "Recognizing Voronoi Diagrams with Linear Programming," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 369-374, November.
    9. Andrews, Donald W.K., 1992. "Generic Uniform Convergence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 241-257, June.
    10. Simon Hix & Abdul Noury & Gérard Roland, 2006. "Dimensions of Politics in the European Parliament," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(2), pages 494-520, April.
    11. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1999. "Political economics and macroeconomic policy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 22, pages 1397-1482, Elsevier.
    12. Janice Bell, 2001. "The Political Economy of Reform in Post-Communist Poland," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1810.
    13. Blundell,Richard & Newey,Whitney K. & Persson,Torsten (ed.), 2006. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521871525, September.
    14. Chen, Xiaohong & Pouzo, Demian, 2009. "Efficient estimation of semiparametric conditional moment models with possibly nonsmooth residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(1), pages 46-60, September.
    15. Simon P. Anderson & André De Palma & Jacques-François Thisse, 1989. "Demand for Differentiated Products, Discrete Choice Models, and the Characteristics Approach," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(1), pages 21-35.
    16. Gallant, A Ronald & Nychka, Douglas W, 1987. "Semi-nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 363-390, March.
    17. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 135-135.
    18. Richard Blundell & Xiaohong Chen & Dennis Kristensen, 2007. "Semi-Nonparametric IV Estimation of Shape-Invariant Engel Curves," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1613-1669, November.
    19. Chunrong Ai & Xiaohong Chen, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Models with Conditional Moment Restrictions Containing Unknown Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1795-1843, November.
    20. Ichimura, Hidehiko & Thompson, T. Scott, 1998. "Maximum likelihood estimation of a binary choice model with random coefficients of unknown distribution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 269-295, June.
    21. Caplin, Andrew & Nalebuff, Barry, 1991. "Aggregation and Imperfect Competition: On the Existence of Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 25-59, January.
    22. Fenton, Victor M. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1996. "Qualitative and asymptotic performance of SNP density estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 77-118, September.
    23. Andrew Chesher & J. M. C. Santos Silva, 2002. "Taste Variation in Discrete Choice Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(1), pages 147-168.
    24. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    25. Eric Gautier & Yuichi Kitamura, 2013. "Nonparametric Estimation in Random Coefficients Binary Choice Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(2), pages 581-607, March.
    26. Racine, Jeffrey S., 2008. "Nonparametric Econometrics: A Primer," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(1), pages 1-88, March.
    27. Degan, Arianna & Merlo, Antonio, 2009. "Do voters vote ideologically?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(5), pages 1868-1894, September.
    28. Blundell,Richard & Newey,Whitney K. & Persson,Torsten (ed.), 2006. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521692083, September.
    29. Steven Berry & Ariel Pakes, 2007. "The Pure Characteristics Demand Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1193-1225, November.
    30. Kyoo il Kim, 2007. "Uniform convergence rate of the seminonparametric density estimator and testing for similarity of two unknown densities," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, March.
    31. Whitney K. Newey & James L. Powell, 2003. "Instrumental Variable Estimation of Nonparametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1565-1578, September.
    32. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
    33. Davis, Otto A. & Hinich, Melvin J. & Ordeshook, Peter C., 1970. "An Expository Development of a Mathematical Model of the Electoral Process," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 426-448, June.
    34. Alesina, Alberto, 1988. "Credibility and Policy Convergence in a Two-Party System with Rational Voters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 796-805, September.
    35. Donald, Stephen G & Paarsch, Harry J, 1993. "Piecewise Pseudo-maximum Likelihood Estimation in Empirical Models of Auctions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 121-148, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Odran Bonnet & Alfred Galichon & Yu-Wei Hsieh & Keith O’Hara & Matt Shum, 2022. "Yogurts Choose Consumers? Estimation of Random-Utility Models via Two-Sided Matching," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 3085-3114.
    2. Pietro Tebaldi & Alexander Torgovitsky & Hanbin Yang, 2023. "Nonparametric Estimates of Demand in the California Health Insurance Exchange," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(1), pages 107-146, January.
    3. Xiaohong Chen & Demian Pouzo, 2015. "Sieve Wald and QLR Inferences on Semi/Nonparametric Conditional Moment Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(3), pages 1013-1079, May.
    4. Xiaohong Chen & Demian Pouzo, 2014. "Sieve Wald and QLR Inferences on Semi/nonparametric Conditional Moment Models," CeMMAP working papers 38/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Wang, Ao, 2021. "A BLP Demand Model of Product-Level Market Shares with Complementarity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1351, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    6. Florian Engl, 2020. "Ideological Motivation and Group Decision-Making," CESifo Working Paper Series 8742, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antonio Merlo & Aureo de Paula, 2010. "Identification and Estimation of Preference Distributions When Voters Are Ideological, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-055, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 13 Oct 2013.
    2. Chen, Xiaohong, 2007. "Large Sample Sieve Estimation of Semi-Nonparametric Models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 76, Elsevier.
    3. Degan, Arianna & Merlo, Antonio, 2009. "Do voters vote ideologically?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(5), pages 1868-1894, September.
    4. Wang, Ao, 2023. "Sieve BLP: A semi-nonparametric model of demand for differentiated products," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 325-351.
    5. Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile, 2014. "Identification in Differentiated Products Markets Using Market Level Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 1749-1797, September.
    6. Arianna Degan & Antonio Merlo, 2007. "Do Voters Vote Ideologically?, Third Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-034, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Aug 2008.
    7. Xiaohong Chen & Victor Chernozhukov & Sokbae Lee & Whitney K. Newey, 2014. "Local Identification of Nonparametric and Semiparametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 785-809, March.
    8. Dunker, Fabian & Hoderlein, Stefan & Kaido, Hiroaki, 2014. "Nonparametric Identification of Endogenous and Heterogeneous Aggregate Demand Models: Complements, Bundles and the Market Level," Economics Series 307, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    9. Kei Kawai & Yasutora Watanabe, 2013. "Inferring Strategic Voting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 624-662, April.
    10. Ai, Chunrong & Chen, Xiaohong, 2012. "The semiparametric efficiency bound for models of sequential moment restrictions containing unknown functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 442-457.
    11. Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile, 2009. "Nonparametric Identification of Multinomial Choice Demand Models with Heterogeneous Consumers," NBER Working Papers 15276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Matzkin, Rosa L., 2012. "Identification in nonparametric limited dependent variable models with simultaneity and unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 106-115.
    13. Xiaohong Chen & Demian Pouzo, 2015. "Sieve Wald and QLR Inferences on Semi/Nonparametric Conditional Moment Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(3), pages 1013-1079, May.
    14. Fabian Dunker & Stefan Hoderlein & Hiroaki Kaido, 2023. "Nonparametric identification of random coefficients in aggregate demand models for differentiated products," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(2), pages 279-306.
    15. Xiaohong Chen & Demian Pouzo, 2008. "Estimation of nonparametric conditional moment models with possibly nonsmooth moments," CeMMAP working papers CWP12/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Liao, Yuan & Jiang, Wenxin, 2011. "Posterior consistency of nonparametric conditional moment restricted models," MPRA Paper 38700, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Fabian Dunker & Stefan Hoderlein & Hiroaki Kaido, 2017. "Nonparametric identification of random coefficients in endogenous and heterogeneous aggregate demand models," CeMMAP working papers 11/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    18. Xiaohong Chen & Demian Pouzo, 2014. "Sieve Wald and QLR Inferences on Semi/nonparametric Conditional Moment Models," CeMMAP working papers 38/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    19. Hong, Shengjie, 2017. "Inference in semiparametric conditional moment models with partial identification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 156-179.
    20. Koo, Chao, 2018. "Essays on functional coefficient models," Other publications TiSEM ba87b8a5-3c55-40ec-967d-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Voting; Voronoi tessellation; Identification; Nonparametric;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10821. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.