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Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains

Author

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  • Marcet, Albert
  • Adam, Klaus
  • Beutel, Johannes
Abstract
The booms and busts in U.S. stock prices over the post-war period can to a large extent be explained by fluctuations in investors` subjective capital gains expectations. Survey measures of these expectations display excessive optimism at market peaks and excessive pessimism at market throughs. Formally incorporating subjective price beliefs into an otherwise standard asset pricing model with utility maximizing investors, we show how subjective belief dynamics can temporarily delink stock prices from their fundamental value and give rise to asset price booms that ultimately result in a price bust. The model successfully replicates (1) the volatility of stock prices and (2) the positive correlation between the price dividend ratio and expected returns observed in survey data. We show that models imposing objective or `rational` price expectations cannot simultaneously account for both facts. Our findings imply that large parts of U.S. stock price fluctuations are not due to standard fundamental forces, instead result from self-reinforcing belief dynamics triggered by these fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcet, Albert & Adam, Klaus & Beutel, Johannes, 2014. "Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains," CEPR Discussion Papers 9988, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9988
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset prices; Subjective beliefs; Survey data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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