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Do zero and sign restricted SVARs identify unconventional monetary policy shocks in the euro area?

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Elbourne

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Kan Ji
Abstract
This research re-examines the findings of the existing literature on the effects of unconventional monetary policy. It concludes that the existing estimates based on vector autoregressions in combination with zero and sign restrictions do not successfully isolate unconventional monetary policy shocks from other shocks impacting the euro area economy. In our research, we show that altering existing published studies by making the incorrect assumption that expansionary monetary shocks shrink the ECB’s balance sheet or even ignoring all information about the stance of monetary policy results in the same shocks and, therefore, the same estimated responses of output and prices. As a consequence, it is implausible that the shocks previously identified in the literature are true unconventional monetary policy shocks. Since correctly isolating unconventional monetary policy shocks is a prerequisite for subsequently estimating the effects of unconventional monetary policy shocks, the conclusions from previous vector autoregression models are unwarranted. We show this lack of identification for different specifications of the vector autoregression models and different sample periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Elbourne & Kan Ji, 2019. "Do zero and sign restricted SVARs identify unconventional monetary policy shocks in the euro area?," CPB Discussion Paper 391, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:391
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Geiger & Jochen Güntner, 2019. "How are oil supply shocks transmitted to the U.S. economy?," Economics working papers 2019-13, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    2. Jef Boeckx & Maarten Dossche & Alessandro Galesi & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2019. "Do SVARs with sign restrictions not identify unconventional monetary policy shocks?," Working Papers 1926, Banco de España.
    3. Adam Elbourne, 2019. "SVARs, the central bank balance sheet and the effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," CPB Discussion Paper 407.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Kortela, Tomi & Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy : identification through the yield curve," Research Discussion Papers 3/2020, Bank of Finland.
    5. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Johann Scharler, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the Sovereign-Bank Nexus," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(3), pages 337-383, September.
    6. Aßhoff, Sina & Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    7. Kortela, Tomi & Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Identification through the yield curve," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2020, Bank of Finland.
    8. Martin Baumgärtner & Jens Klose, 2021. "Why central banks announcing liquidity injections is more effective than forward guidance," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 236-256, August.
    9. Adam Elbourne, 2019. "SVARs, the central bank balance sheet and the effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," CPB Discussion Paper 407, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. de Bondt, Gabe J. & Hahn, Elke & Zekaite, Zivile, 2021. "ALICE: Composite leading indicators for euro area inflation cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 687-707.
    11. Armando Marozzi, 2021. "The ECB and the Cost of Independence. Unearthing a New Doom-Loop in the European Monetary Union," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21152, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    12. Brandt, Lennart & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Schröder, Maximilian & Van Robays, Ine, 2021. "What drives euro area financial market developments? The role of US spillovers and global risk," Working Paper Series 2560, European Central Bank.
    13. Glocker, Christian & Piribauer, Philipp, 2021. "Digitalization, retail trade and monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Armando Marozzi, 2021. "The ECB and the Cost of Independence. Unearthing a New Doom-Loop in the European Monetary Union," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21152, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    16. Lhuissier Stéphane & Nguyen Benoît, 2021. "The Dynamic Effects of the ECB’s Asset Purchases: a Survey-Based Identification," Working papers 806, Banque de France.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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