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Détermination du PIB réel trimestriel du Québec et analyse du cycle économique, 1948-1980

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Fortin
  • Marcelin Joanis
  • Philippe Kabore
  • Luc Savard
Abstract
This study aims to consolidate the economic history of Quebec over the period from 1948 to 1980. Unlike previous economic studies relating to this period, we identify the chronology of the economic cycle of Quebec by estimating the real quarterly GDP by using the method of Ginsburgh (1973) as modified by De Carufel and Lizotte (1982). Our analysis of the duration and intensity of recessions confirms the presence of regional cycles in Canada. Il shows also that the business cycle of Quebec is more strongly correlated with the US cycle than with the cycle in the rest of Canada. Cette étude vise à affermir notre compréhension de l’histoire économique du Québec sur la période allant de 1948 à 1980. À la différence des études économiques antérieures portant sur cette période, nous identifions la chronologie du cycle économique du Québec en estimant le PIB réel trimestriel à l’aide de la méthode de Ginsburgh (1973) telle que modifiée par De Carufel et Lizotte (1982). Notre analyse de la durée et de l’intensité des récessions confirme la présence de cycles régionaux au Canada. Elle montre aussi que le cycle du Québec est plus fortement corrélé avec le cycle américain qu’avec le cycle du reste du Canada.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Fortin & Marcelin Joanis & Philippe Kabore & Luc Savard, 2021. "Détermination du PIB réel trimestriel du Québec et analyse du cycle économique, 1948-1980," CIRANO Working Papers 2021s-21, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2021s-21
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    File URL: https://cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/2021s-21.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP; quarterlyization; business cycle; Ginsburgh method; 1948-1980; PIB; trimestrialisation; cycle économique; méthode de Ginsburgh; 1948-1980;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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