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Working Less and Bargain Hunting More:Macro Implications of Sales during Japan's Lost Decades

Author

Listed:
  • Nao Sudo

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Kozo Ueda

    (Waseda University)

  • Kota Watanabe

    (Meiji University)

  • Tsutomu Watanabe

    (The University of Tokyo)

Abstract
Standard New Keynesian models have often neglected temporary sales. In this paper, we ask whether this treatment is appropriate. In the empirical part of the paper, we provide evidence using Japanese scanner data covering the last two decades that the frequency of sales was closely related with macroeconomic developments. Specically, we find that the frequency of sales and hours worked move in opposite directions in response to technology shocks, producing a negative correlation between the two. We then construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that takes households' decisions regarding their allocation of time for work, leisure, and bargain hunting into account. Using this model, we show that the rise in the frequency of sales, which is observed in the data, can be accounted for by the decline in hours worked during Japan's lost decades. We also nd that the real eect of monetary policy shocks weakens by around 40% due to the presence of temporary sales, but monetary policy still matters.

Suggested Citation

  • Nao Sudo & Kozo Ueda & Kota Watanabe & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Working Less and Bargain Hunting More:Macro Implications of Sales during Japan's Lost Decades," CARF F-Series CARF-F-351, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf351
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ueda, Kozo, 2023. "Duopolistic competition and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 70-85.
    2. Kozo Ueda & Kota Watanabe & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "Consumer Inventory and the Cost of Living Index: Theory and Some Evidence from Japan," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 025, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    3. Yoshiyuki Kurachi & Kazuhiro Hiraki & Shinichi Nishioka, 2016. "Does a Higher Frequency of Micro-level Price Changes Matter for Macro Price Stickiness?: Assessing the Impact of Temporary Price Changes," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    4. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Nicolas Vincent, 2014. "On the Importance of Sales for Aggregate Price Flexibility," Staff Working Papers 14-45, Bank of Canada.
    5. Kozo Ueda & Kota Watanabe & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2021. "Household Inventory, Temporary Sales, and Price Indices," CARF F-Series CARF-F-520, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    6. Kozo Ueda & Kota Watanabe & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2018. "Product Turnover and the Cost of Living Index: Quality vs. Fashion Effects," Globalization Institute Working Papers 337, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Higo, Masahiro & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2023. "Consumer price measurement under the first wave of the COVID-19 spread in Japan: Scanner data evidence for retailers in Tokyo," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Takahashi, Shuhei, 2021. "The uniqueness of steady-state equilibrium under state-dependent pricing: The case of deflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    9. Masahiro Higo & Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2022. "Was Inflation Observed under the First Wave of the COVID-19 Spread in Japan? Scanner Data Evidence for Retailers in Tokyo," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2022-013, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    10. Kozo Ueda & Kota Watanabe & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2024. "Household Inventory, Temporary Sales, Price Indices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(1), pages 217-251, February.
    11. Nao Sudo & Kozo Ueda & Kota Watanabe, 2014. "Micro Price Dynamics during Japan's Lost Decades," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 44-64, January.
    12. Shuhei Takahashi, 2018. "Does State-Dependent Wage Setting Generate Multiple Equilibria?," KIER Working Papers 991, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    13. Glandon, PJ, 2018. "Sales and the (Mis)measurement of price level fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 60-77.
    14. Ko Munakata & Takeshi Shinohara & Shigenori Shiratsuka & Nao Sudo & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2024. "Online Appendix: On the Source of Seasonality in Price Changes: The Role of Seasonality in Menu Costs," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 052_Appendix, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    15. Hibiki Ichiue & Maiko Koga & Tatsushi Okuda & Tatsuya Ozaki, 2019. "Households' Liquidity Constraint, Optimal Attention Allocation, and Inflation Expectations," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    16. Naoko Hara & Kazuhiro Hiraki & Yoshitaka Ichise, 2015. "Changing Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japan: Does It Indicate Changing Pricing Behavior?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    17. Ueda, Kozo, 2020. "Dynamic cost of living index for storable goods," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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