[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_9560.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Making Subsidies Work: Rules vs. Discretion

Author

Listed:
  • Federico Cingano
  • Filippo Palomba
  • Paolo Pinotti
  • Enrico Rettore
Abstract
We estimate the effects of a large program of public investment subsidies granted to Italian firms in disadvantaged areas. Projects were given numerical scores according to objective criteria and local politicians’ preferences, and funded in rank order until the funds were fully allocated. We estimate that subsidies increased investment by marginal firms near the cutoff by 39 percent, and employment by 17 percent over a 6-year period. Building on recent advancements in the econometrics of regression discontinuity designs, we characterize heterogeneity of treatment effects and cost-per-new-job across inframarginal firms away from the cutoff. Employment grows more in smaller firms, but larger firms generated more jobs-per-euro of subsidy. Younger firms did better than older firms. Firms ranking high on objective criteria and firms preferred by local politicians generated larger employment growth on average, but the latter did so at a higher cost per job. Under a policy invariance assumption, we estimate that eliminating political discretion and relying only on objective criteria would reduce the cost per job by 9 percent, while relying only on political discretion would increase the cost by 55 percent. The effect of political discretion is larger in the south, which received the largest share of funds and exhibited the highest cost-per-job under the actual allocation criteria.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Cingano & Filippo Palomba & Paolo Pinotti & Enrico Rettore, 2022. "Making Subsidies Work: Rules vs. Discretion," CESifo Working Paper Series 9560, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9560
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp9560.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maximilian v. Ehrlich & Henry G. Overman, 2020. "Place-Based Policies and Spatial Disparities across European Cities," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 128-149, Summer.
    2. Francesco Decarolis & Raymond Fisman & Paolo Pinotti & Silvia Vannutelli, 2019. "Rules, Discretion, and Corruption in Procurement: Evidence from Italian Government Contracting," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-344, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    3. Sascha O. Becker & Peter H. Egger & Maximilian von Ehrlich, 2013. "Absorptive Capacity and the Growth and Investment Effects of Regional Transfers: A Regression Discontinuity Design with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 29-77, November.
    4. Patrick Kline & Enrico Moretti, 2014. "People, Places, and Public Policy: Some Simple Welfare Economics of Local Economic Development Programs," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 629-662, August.
    5. Audinga Baltrunaite & Cristina Giorgiantonio & Sauro Mocetti & Tommaso Orlando, 2021. "Discretion and Supplier Selection in Public Procurement," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 134-166.
    6. Erica Bosio & Simeon Djankov & Edward Glaeser & Andrei Shleifer, 2022. "Public Procurement in Law and Practice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1091-1117, April.
    7. Raffaello Bronzini & Eleonora Iachini, 2014. "Are Incentives for R&D Effective? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 100-134, November.
    8. Diego Restuccia & Richard Rogerson, 2008. "Policy Distortions and Aggregate Productivity with Heterogeneous Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 707-720, October.
    9. Martin C. Schmalz & David A. Sraer & David Thesmar, 2017. "Housing Collateral and Entrepreneurship," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(1), pages 99-132, February.
    10. Raven Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2011. "Internal Migration in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 173-196, Summer.
    11. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    12. Krueger, Anne O, 1990. "Government Failures in Development," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 9-23, Summer.
    13. Timothy J. Bartik, 2020. "Using Place-Based Jobs Policies to Help Distressed Communities," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 99-127, Summer.
    14. Daniel J. Wilson, 2012. "Fiscal Spending Jobs Multipliers: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 251-282, August.
    15. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    16. Ham, John C. & Swenson, Charles & İmrohoroğlu, Ayşe & Song, Heonjae, 2011. "Government programs can improve local labor markets: Evidence from State Enterprise Zones, Federal Empowerment Zones and Federal Enterprise Community," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 779-797.
    17. Gobillon, Laurent & Magnac, Thierry & Selod, Harris, 2012. "Do unemployed workers benefit from enterprise zones? The French experience," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(9-10), pages 881-892.
    18. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2020. "Simple Local Polynomial Density Estimators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(531), pages 1449-1455, July.
    19. Maximilian v. Ehrlich & Tobias Seidel, 2018. "The Persistent Effects of Place-Based Policy: Evidence from the West-German Zonenrandgebiet," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 344-374, November.
    20. Oriana Bandiera & Michael Carlos Best & Adnan Qadir Khan & Andrea Prat, 2021. "The Allocation of Authority in Organizations: A Field Experiment with Bureaucrats," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2195-2242.
    21. Cailin R. Slattery & Owen M. Zidar, 2020. "Evaluating State and Local Business Tax Incentives," NBER Working Papers 26603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Bertanha, Marinho, 2020. "Regression discontinuity design with many thresholds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 216-241.
    23. Michael Greenstone & Enrico Moretti, 2003. "Bidding for Industrial Plants: Does Winning a 'Million Dollar Plant' Increase Welfare?," NBER Working Papers 9844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Cerqua, Augusto & Pellegrini, Guido, 2014. "Do subsidies to private capital boost firms' growth? A multiple regression discontinuity design approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 114-126.
    25. Michael Greenstone & Richard Hornbeck & Enrico Moretti, 2010. "Identifying Agglomeration Spillovers: Evidence from Winners and Losers of Large Plant Openings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(3), pages 536-598, June.
    26. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 447-456, July.
    27. Chiara Criscuolo & Ralf Martin & Henry G. Overman & John Van Reenen, 2019. "Some Causal Effects of an Industrial Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(1), pages 48-85, January.
    28. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2019. "Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34, May.
    29. Margherita Fort & Andrea Ichino & Enrico Rettore & Giulio Zanella, 2022. "Multicutoff RD designs with observations located at each cutoff: problems and solutions," FBK-IRVAPP Working Papers 2022-01, Research Institute for the Evaluation of Public Policies (IRVAPP), Bruno Kessler Foundation.
    30. Thierry Mayer & Florian Mayneris & Loriane Py, 2017. "The impact of Urban Enterprise Zones on establishment location decisions and labor market outcomes: evidence from France," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 709-752.
    31. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Laura Feiveson & Zachary Liscow & William Gui Woolston, 2012. "Does State Fiscal Relief during Recessions Increase Employment? Evidence from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 118-145, August.
    32. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    33. Matias Busso & Jesse Gregory & Patrick Kline, 2013. "Assessing the Incidence and Efficiency of a Prominent Place Based Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 897-947, April.
    34. Evans, David S, 1987. "Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 657-674, August.
    35. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/125h4fg7e89gi95ui3ml6ggod9 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Michael Siemer, 2019. "Employment Effects of Financial Constraints during the Great Recession," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 16-29, March.
    37. Akcigit, Ufuk & Akgunduz, Yusuf Emre & Cilasun, Seyit Mumin & Ozcan-Tok, Elif & Yilmaz, Fatih, 2020. "Facts on business dynamism in Turkey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    38. Federico Cingano & Paolo Pinotti, 2013. "Politicians At Work: The Private Returns And Social Costs Of Political Connections," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 433-465, April.
    39. Bondonio, Daniele & Greenbaum, Robert T., 2007. "Do local tax incentives affect economic growth? What mean impacts miss in the analysis of enterprise zone policies," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 121-136, January.
    40. Nicholas Bloom & Erik Brynjolfsson & Lucia Foster & Ron Jarmin & Megha Patnaik & Itay Saporta-Eksten & John Van Reenen, 2019. "What Drives Differences in Management Practices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1648-1683, May.
    41. Becker, Sascha O. & Egger, Peter H. & von Ehrlich, Maximilian, 2010. "Going NUTS: The effect of EU Structural Funds on regional performance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 578-590, October.
    42. Miriam A. Golden & Lucio Picci, 2008. "Pork‐Barrel Politics in Postwar Italy, 1953–94," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(2), pages 268-289, April.
    43. Andrew Goodman-Bacon, 2018. "Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing," NBER Working Papers 25018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Joshua D. Angrist & Miikka Rokkanen, 2015. "Wanna Get Away? Regression Discontinuity Estimation of Exam School Effects Away From the Cutoff," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(512), pages 1331-1344, December.
    45. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 2002. "Political Economics: Explaining Economic Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661314, April.
    46. Matias D. Cattaneo & Luke Keele & Rocío Titiunik & Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare, 2021. "Extrapolating Treatment Effects in Multi-Cutoff Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1941-1952, October.
    47. Decio Coviello & Andrea Guglielmo & Giancarlo Spagnolo, 2018. "The Effect of Discretion on Procurement Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 715-738, February.
    48. Nathaniel Lane, 2020. "The New Empirics of Industrial Policy," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 209-234, June.
    49. Cailin Slattery & Owen Zidar, 2020. "Evaluating State and Local Business Incentives," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 90-118, Spring.
    50. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2014. "The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-level Evidence from the 2008-9 Financial Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 1-59.
    51. Yingying Dong & Arthur Lewbel, 2015. "Identifying the Effect of Changing the Policy Threshold in Regression Discontinuity Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1081-1092, December.
    52. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "The Missing "Missing Middle"," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 89-108, Summer.
    53. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, "undated". "The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-level Evidence from the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," Working Paper 90811, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    54. Imbens,Guido W. & Rubin,Donald B., 2015. "Causal Inference for Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521885881, September.
    55. Bronzini, Raffaello & de Blasio, Guido, 2006. "Evaluating the impact of investment incentives: The case of Italy's Law 488/1992," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 327-349, September.
    56. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3l4arseauo82kr3cm0qr8uihmg is not listed on IDEAS
    57. Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 1996. "Industrial policy and politics," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    58. Raymond Fisman, 2001. "Estimating the Value of Political Connections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1095-1102, September.
    59. repec:hal:pseose:hal-00812979 is not listed on IDEAS
    60. Lee, David S., 2008. "Randomized experiments from non-random selection in U.S. House elections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 675-697, February.
    61. Patrick Kline, 2011. "Oaxaca-Blinder as a Reweighting Estimator," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 532-537, May.
    62. Cerqua, Augusto & Pellegrini, Guido, 2022. "Decomposing the employment effects of investment subsidies," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cappelletti, Matilde & Giuffrida, Leonardo M., 2021. "Procuring survival," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-093, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. Marco Bertoni & Giorgio Brunello & Lorenzo Cappellari & Maria De Paola, 2023. "The long-run earnings effects of winning a mayoral election," LISER Working Paper Series 2023-02, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    3. Cuciniello, Vincenzo & Michelacci, Claudio & Paciello, Luigi, 2023. "Subsidizing Business Entry in Competitive Credit Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 18335, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Matilde Cappelletti & Leonardo M. Giuffrida & Gabriele Rovigatti, 2022. "Procuring Survival," CESifo Working Paper Series 10124, CESifo.
    5. Alexandre, Fernando & Chaves, Miguel & Portela, Miguel, 2022. "Investment Grants and Firms' Productivity: How Effective Is a Grant Booster Shot?," IZA Discussion Papers 15779, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Cingano, Federico & Palomba, Filippo & Pinotti, Paolo & Rettore, Enrico, 2023. "Granting more bang for the buck: The heterogeneous effects of firm subsidies," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Neumark, David & Simpson, Helen, 2015. "Place-Based Policies," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1197-1287, Elsevier.
    2. Cingano, Federico & Palomba, Filippo & Pinotti, Paolo & Rettore, Enrico, 2023. "Granting more bang for the buck: The heterogeneous effects of firm subsidies," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Cappelletti, Matilde & Giuffrida, Leonardo M., 2021. "Procuring survival," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-093, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    4. Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocío Titiunik, 2022. "Regression Discontinuity Designs," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 821-851, August.
    5. Einiö, Elias & Overman, Henry G., 2020. "The effects of supporting local business: Evidence from the UK," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Wenhua Di & Daniel L. Millimet, 2017. "Targeted business incentives and the debt behavior of households," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 1115-1142, May.
    7. Giuseppe Albanese & Guido de Blasio & Andrea Locatelli, 2021. "Does EU regional policy promote local TFP growth? Evidence from the Italian Mezzogiorno," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(2), pages 327-348, April.
    8. Alexandre, Fernando & Chaves, Miguel & Portela, Miguel, 2022. "Investment Grants and Firms' Productivity: How Effective Is a Grant Booster Shot?," IZA Discussion Papers 15779, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Maximilian v. Ehrlich & Henry G. Overman, 2020. "Place-Based Policies and Spatial Disparities across European Cities," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 128-149, Summer.
    10. Augusto Cerqua & Guido Pellegrini, 2020. "Labor mobility effects of a firm-level shock," Working Papers 1/20, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    11. Cerqua, Augusto & Pellegrini, Guido, 2022. "Decomposing the employment effects of investment subsidies," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Aycan Katitas & Sonal Pandya, 2024. "Investment incentives attract foreign direct investment: evidence from the great recession," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 200(1), pages 323-345, July.
    13. Jia, Junxue & Ma, Guangrong & Qin, Cong & Wang, Liyan, 2020. "Place-based policies, state-led industrialisation, and regional development: Evidence from China's Great Western Development Programme," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    14. Brachert, Matthias & Dettmann, Eva & Titze, Mirko, 2019. "The regional effects of a place-based policy – Causal evidence from Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. Manon Garrouste & Miren Lafourcade, 2022. "Place-Based Policies: Opportunity for Deprived Schools or Zone-and-Shame Effect?," Post-Print hal-04329793, HAL.
    16. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2017. "The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 3-32, Spring.
    17. Dettmann, Eva & Brachert, Matthias & Titze, Mirko, 2016. "Identifying the Effects of Place-based Policies – Causal Evidence from Germany," IWH Discussion Papers 18/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    18. Sebastian Siegloch & Nils Wehrhöfer & Tobias Etzel, 2022. "Spillover, Efficiency and Equity Effects of Regional Firm Subsidies," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 210, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    19. Freedman, Matthew & Khanna, Shantanu & Neumark, David, 2023. "Combining rules and discretion in economic development policy: Evidence on the impacts of the California Competes Tax Credit," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    20. Overman, Henry & Einiö, Elias, 2016. "The (Displacement) Effects of Spatially Targeted Enterprise Initiatives: Evidence from UK LEGI," CEPR Discussion Papers 11112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    public subsidies; investment; employment; political discretion; regression discontinuity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9560. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.