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Climate Change and Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States

Author

Listed:
  • Kamiar Mohaddes
  • Ryan N. C. Ng
  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Mehdi Raissi
  • Jui-Chung Yang
Abstract
We investigate the long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change across 48 U.S. states over the period 1963.2016 using a novel econometric strategy which links deviations of temperature and precipitation (weather) from their long-term moving-average historical norms (climate) to various state-specific economic performance indicators at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labour productivity and employment in the United States. Moreover, in contrast to most cross-country results, our within U.S. estimates tend to be asymmetrical with respect to deviations of climate variables (including precipitation) from their historical norms.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamiar Mohaddes & Ryan N. C. Ng & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi & Jui-Chung Yang, 2022. "Climate Change and Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States," CESifo Working Paper Series 9542, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9542
    as

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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp9542.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrycja Klusak & Matthew Agarwala & Matt Burke & Moritz Kraemer & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2023. "Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7468-7491, December.
    2. Agarwala, Matthew & Burke, Matt & Klusak, Patrycja & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Volz, Ulrich & Zenghelis, Dimitri, 2021. "Climate Change And Fiscal Sustainability: Risks And Opportunities," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 258, pages 28-46, November.
    3. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    4. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Jui‐Chung Yang, 2018. "Half‐panel jackknife fixed‐effects estimation of linear panels with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 816-836, September.
    5. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1997. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 178-191, January.
    6. Marshall Burke & Vincent Tanutama, 2019. "Climatic Constraints on Aggregate Economic Output," NBER Working Papers 25779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Daniel L. Swain & Baird Langenbrunner & J. David Neelin & Alex Hall, 2018. "Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(5), pages 427-433, May.
    8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    9. Riccardo Colacito & Bridget Hoffmann & Toan Phan, 2019. "Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 313-368, March.
    10. Shardul Agrawala & Maëlis Carraro & Nicholas Kingsmill & Elisa Lanzi & Michael Mullan & Guillaume Prudent-Richard, 2011. "Private Sector Engagement in Adaptation to Climate Change: Approaches to Managing Climate Risks," OECD Environment Working Papers 39, OECD Publishing.
    11. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2013. "Debt, inflation and growth robust estimation of long-run effects in dynamic panel data models," Globalization Institute Working Papers 162, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    13. Marshall Burke & Kyle Emerick, 2016. "Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from US Agriculture," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 106-140, August.
    14. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    15. Michele Aquaro & Natalia Bailey & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "Estimation and inference for spatial models with heterogeneous coefficients: An application to US house prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 18-44, January.
    16. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Williams, Rhys J., 2020. "The adaptive investment effect: Evidence from Chinese provinces," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    17. Tatyana Deryugina & Solomon M. Hsiang, 2014. "Does the Environment Still Matter? Daily Temperature and Income in the United States," NBER Working Papers 20750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel J. Wilson, 2023. "Climate Change and the Geography of the U.S. Economy," Working Paper Series 2023-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Bo Zhao, 2022. "The Impact of Weather on Local Government Spending," Working Papers 22-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Andrea Bastianin & Graziano Moramarco, 2024. "Macroeconomic Spillovers of Weather Shocks across U.S. States," Working Papers 2024.09, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Oscar Claveria & Petar Sorić, 2023. "Labour market uncertainty after the irruption of COVID-19," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1897-1945, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; economic growth; adaptation; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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