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Decoupling Global Value Chains

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Eppinger
  • Gabriel J. Felbermayr
  • Oliver Krebs
  • Bohdan Kukharskyy
Abstract
Recent disruptions to global value chains (GVCs) have raised an important question: Can decoupling from GVCs increase a country’s welfare by reducing its exposure to foreign supply shocks? We use a quantitative trade model to simulate GVCs decoupling, defined as increased barriers to global input trade. After decoupling, the repercussions of foreign supply shocks are reduced on average, but some countries experience magnified effects. Across various scenarios, welfare losses from decoupling far exceed any benefits from lower shock exposure. In the U.S., a repatriation of GVCs would reduce national welfare by 2.2% but barely change U.S. exposure to foreign shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2021. "Decoupling Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 9079, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9079
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    Cited by:

    1. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gans, Steffen & Mahlkow, Hendrik & Sandkamp, Alexander-Nikolai, 2021. "Decoupling Europe," Kiel Policy Brief 153, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Gabriel Felbermayr, 2023. "Krieg mit anderen Mitteln," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(2), pages 111-122, February.
    3. Gabriel Felbermayr & Hendrik Mahlkow & Alexander Sandkamp, 2023. "Cutting through the value chain: the long-run effects of decoupling the East from the West," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 75-108, February.
    4. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2022:i:196 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kai A. Konrad & Marcel Thum, 2021. "Internationale Politikexternalitäten in der Pandemie," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 28(06), pages 07-11, December.
    6. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Ludovic Panon & Laura Lebastard & Michele Mancini & Alessandro Borin & Peonare Caka & Gianmarco Cariola & Dennis Essers & Elena Gentili & Andrea Linarello & Tullia Padellini & Francisco Requena & Jaco, 2024. "Inputs in Distress: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Firms’ Sourcing," Working Papers 2436, Banco de España.
    8. Zuzana Zavarská, 2022. "Global Value Chains in the Post-pandemic World: How can the Western Balkans Foster the Potential of Nearshoring?," wiiw Policy Notes 58, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    9. Dietlmeier, Simon Frederic & Urmetzer, Florian, 2023. "Tech Sovereignty and Industrial Ecosystems," MPRA Paper 120558, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Anamaria Diana Sova & Robert Sova, 2022. "The Covid-19 Pandemic and European Trade Patterns: A Sectoral Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 10115, CESifo.
    11. Rebecca Freeman & Richard Baldwin, 2022. "Risks and Global Supply Chains: What We Know and What We Need to Know," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 153-180, August.
    12. Erik Canton & Federica Colasanti & Jorge Durán & Maria Garrone & Alexandr Hobza & Wouter Simons & Anneleen Vandeplas, 2021. "The Sectoral Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis. An Unprecedented and Atypical Crisis," European Economy - Economic Briefs 069, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Xuepeng Liu & Emanuel Ornelas & Huimin Shi, 2022. "The trade impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(12), pages 3751-3779, December.
    14. Conteduca, Francesco Paolo & Giglioli, Simona & Giordano, Claire & Mancini, Michele & Panon, Ludovic, 2024. "Trade Fragmentation Unveiled: Five Facts on the Reconfiguration of Global, US and EU Trade," MPRA Paper 122657, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Oct 2024.
    15. Ascari, Guido & Bonam, Dennis & Smadu, Andra, 2024. "Global supply chain pressures, inflation, and implications for monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    16. Acocella, Nicola, 2024. "The Impact and the Future of Globalisation," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 77(4), pages 495-514.
    17. Borin, Alessandro & Conteduca, Francesco Paolo & Di Stefano, Enrica & Gunnella, Vanessa & Mancini, Michele & Panon, Ludovic, 2023. "Trade decoupling from Russia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 25-44.
    18. Cajal-Grossi, Julia & Del Prete, Davide & Macchiavello, Rocco, 2023. "Supply chain disruptions and sourcing strategies," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    19. Jonas Böschemeier & Karsten Mau, 2023. "Foreign Supply Shocks and the Structure of Trade in a Small Open Economy," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(4), pages 303-342, December.
    20. Wijesinghe, Asanka & Kaushalya, Thilani, 2022. "Caloric consumption efficiency and import dependency: Evidence from Sri Lanka," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 420-438.
    21. Yang Ye & Qingpeng Zhang, 2024. "The futility of economic sanctions in a globalized and interdependent world: a data-driven game theoretical study," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    22. Asanka Wijesinghe & Chathurrdhika Yogarajah, 2022. "Trade Policy Impact on Global Value Chain Participation of the South Asian Countries," Journal of Asian Economic Integration, , vol. 4(1), pages 24-48, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    quantitative trade model; input-output linkages; global value chains; Covid-19; supply chain contagion; shock transmission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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