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Rules vs. Discretion in Cap-and-Trade Programs: Evidence from the EU Emission Trading System

Author

Listed:
  • Marina Friedrich
  • Sébastien Fries
  • Michael Pahle
  • Ottmar Edenhofer
Abstract
Long-term commitment is crucial for the dynamic efficiency of intertemporal cap-and-trade programs. Discretionary interventions in such programs could destabilize the market, and necessitate subsequent corrective interventions that instigate regulatory instability (Kydland and Prescott, 1977). In this work, we provide evidence for this claim from the EU’s cap-and-trade program (EU-ETS). We ground our analysis in the theoretical finance literature, and apply a mixed method approach (time-varying regression, bubble detection, crash-odds modelling). We find that the recent EU-ETS reform triggered market participants into speculation, which likely led to an overreaction that destabilized the market. We discuss how the smokescreen politics behind the reform, which manifested itself in complex rules, was crucial for this outcome. We conclude that rules only ensure long-term commitment when their impact on prices is predictable.

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Friedrich & Sébastien Fries & Michael Pahle & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2020. "Rules vs. Discretion in Cap-and-Trade Programs: Evidence from the EU Emission Trading System," CESifo Working Paper Series 8637, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8637
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp8637.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Quemin, Simon, 2022. "Raising climate ambition in emissions trading systems: The case of the EU ETS and the 2021 review," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    rules vs. discretion; cap-and-trade; overreaction; allowance pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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