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Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Giglio
  • Matteo Maggiori
  • Johannes Stroebel
  • Stephen Utkus
Abstract
We analyze how investor expectations about economic growth and stock returns changed during the February-March 2020 stock market crash induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as during the subsequent partial stock market recovery. We surveyed retail investors who are clients of Vanguard at three points in time: (i) on February 11-12, around the all-time stock market high, (ii) on March 11-12, after the stock market had collapsed by over 20%, and (iii) on April 16-17, after the market had rallied 25% from its lowest point. Following the crash, the average investor turned more pessimistic about the short-run performance of both the stock market and the real economy. Investors also perceived higher probabilities of both further extreme stock market declines and large declines in short-run real economic activity. In contrast, investor expectations about long-run (10-year) economic and stock market outcomes remained largely unchanged, and, if anything, improved. Disagreement among investors about economic and stock market outcomes also increased substantially following the stock market crash, with the disagreement persisting through the partial market recovery. Those respondents who were the most optimistic in February saw the largest decline in expectations, and sold the most equity. Those respondents who were the most pessimistic in February largely left their portfolios unchanged during and after the crash.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel & Stephen Utkus, 2020. "Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash," CESifo Working Paper Series 8334, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8334
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic consequences > Stock market

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    Cited by:

    1. Coskun, Yener & Akinsomi, Omokolade & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOIuwa S., 2021. "Stock Market Responses to COVID-19: Mean Reversion, Dependence and Persistence Behaviours," MPRA Paper 109827, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Zhifeng Liu & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Peng-Fei Dai, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on the stock market crash risk in China," Papers 2009.08030, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    3. Liu, Zhifeng & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Dai, Peng-Fei, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on the stock market crash risk in China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    4. Saito, Yuta & Sakamoto, Jun, 2021. "Asset pricing during pandemic lockdown," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Giglio, Stefano & Maggiori, Matteo & Stroebel, Johannes & Tan, Zhenhao & Utkus, Stephen & Xu, Xiao, 2023. "Four Facts About Esg Beliefs And Investor Portfolios," SocArXiv dcb93, Center for Open Science.
    6. Bazzana, Davide & Colturato, Michele & Savona, Roberto, 2021. "Learning about Unprecedented Events: Agent-Based Modelling and the Stock Market Impact of COVID-19," FEEM Working Papers 314928, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Hasan Fallahgoul, 2020. "Inside the Mind of Investors During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from the StockTwits Data," Papers 2004.11686, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    8. Buchheim Lukas & Krolage Carla & Link Sebastian, 2022. "Sudden stop: When did firms anticipate the potential consequences of COVID-19?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 79-119, February.
    9. Pagano, Michael S. & Sedunov, John & Velthuis, Raisa, 2021. "How did retail investors respond to the COVID-19 pandemic? The effect of Robinhood brokerage customers on market quality," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    10. Francke, Marc & Korevaar, Matthijs, 2021. "Housing markets in a pandemic: Evidence from historical outbreaks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    11. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Neng Wang & Xiao Xu & Jinqiang Yang, 2020. "Pandemics, Vaccines and an Earnings Damage Function," NBER Working Papers 27829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Davide Bazzana & Michele Colturato & Roberto Savona, 2021. "Learning about Unprecedented Events: Agent-Based Modelling and the Stock Market Impact of COVID-19," Working Papers 2021.26, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    13. Anna Cororaton & Samuel Rosen, 2021. "Public Firm Borrowers of the U.S. Paycheck Protection Program [The risk of being a fallen angel and the corporate dash for cash in the midst of COVID]," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 641-693.
    14. Toufique, M. M. K., 2020. "Why do some countries have more COVID-19 cases than others? Evidence from 70 most affected countries sans China," EconStor Preprints 222456, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    15. Daniel Buncic, 2020. "Econometric issues with Laubach and Williams' estimates of the natural rate of interest," Papers 2002.11583, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    16. Hetzel, Robert, 2020. "COVID-19 and the Fed’s Credit Policy," Working Papers 10689, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
    17. Glossner, Simon & Matos, Pedro Pinto & Ramelli, Stefano & Wagner, Alexander F., 2022. "Do institutional investors stabilize equity markets in crisis periods? Evidence from COVID-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 15070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Croce, Mariano & Farroni, Paolo & Wolfskeil, Isabella, 2020. "When the Markets Get COVID: COntagion, Viruses, and Information Diffusion," CEPR Discussion Papers 14674, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Georgij Alekseev & Safaa Amer & Manasa Gopal & Theresa Kuchler & J. W. Schneider & Johannes Stroebel & Nils Wernerfelt, 2023. "The Effects of COVID-19 on U.S. Small Businesses: Evidence from Owners, Managers, and Employees," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 7-24, January.
    20. Bu, Di & Hanspal, Tobin & Liao, Yin & Liu, Yong, 2021. "Risk taking, preferences, and beliefs: Evidence from Wuhan," SAFE Working Paper Series 301, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    21. Jinyong Kim & Yongsik Kim, 2022. "Market‐wide shocks and the predictive power for the real economy in the Korean stock market," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 380-399, October.
    22. Arteaga-Garavito, Maria Jose & Croce, Mariano M. & Farroni, Paolo & Wolfskeil, Isabella, 2024. "When the markets get CO.V.I.D: COntagion, Viruses, and Information Diffusion," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    23. Payzan-LeNestour, Elise & Woodford, Michael, 2022. "Outlier blindness: A neurobiological foundation for neglect of financial risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1316-1343.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    surveys; expectations; sentiment; behavioural finance; trading; rare disasters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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