[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_2704.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Costs of Organized Violence: A Review of the Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Stergios Skaperdas
Abstract
I critically review recent studies that estimate those costs of violence and conflict that can emerge among organized political groupings, from states, religious and ethnic organizations to guerillas and paramilitaries. The review includes studies that estimate direct and indirect costs due to internal conflicts (civil wars and other lower-level conflicts), terrorism, and external conflicts, including military spending. There are a number of key theoretical concerns on what counts as a cost, and, depending on the methods and evidence used, estimated costs vary widely. However, even minimum estimates are economically significant, especially for low-income countries. This is even more so when the costs of different types of organized conflict and violence are aggregated.

Suggested Citation

  • Stergios Skaperdas, 2009. "The Costs of Organized Violence: A Review of the Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 2704, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2704
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp2704.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Siyan Chen & Norman V. Loayza & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2008. "The Aftermath of Civil War," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(1), pages 63-85, February.
    2. Abadie, Alberto & Gardeazabal, Javier, 2008. "Terrorism and the world economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-27, January.
    3. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2007. "Calculating Tragedy: Assessing The Costs Of Terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 1-24, February.
    4. Stergios Skaperdas, 2001. "The political economy of organized crime: providing protection when the state does not," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 173-202, November.
    5. Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2006. "Institutions and the Resource Curse," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 1-20, January.
    6. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    7. repec:wly:soecon:v:82:3:y:2016:p:748-759 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. John Bellows & Edward Miguel, 2006. "War and Institutions: New Evidence from Sierra Leone," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 394-399, May.
    9. Malcolm Knight & Norman Loayza & Delano Villanueva, 1996. "The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 1-37, March.
    10. Biswas, Basudeb & Ram, Rati, 1986. "Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 361-372, January.
    11. Bellows, John & Miguel, Edward, 2009. "War and local collective action in Sierra Leone," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1144-1157, December.
    12. Grossman, Herschel I & Kim, Minseong, 1996. "Predation and Accumulation," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 333-350, September.
    13. James C. Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2002. "Economic Growth, Civil Wars, and Spatial Spillovers," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 91-110, February.
    14. Gregory D. Hess, 2003. "The Economic Welfare Cost of Conflict: An Empirical Assessment," CESifo Working Paper Series 852, CESifo.
    15. Fearon, James D. & Laitin, David D., 2003. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 75-90, February.
    16. Michael McBride & Gary Milante & Stergios Skaperdas, 2011. "Peace and War With Endogenous State Capacity," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 55(3), pages 446-468, June.
    17. Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1007-1032, July.
    18. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 1991. "A Causal Analysis of Defense Spending and Economic Growth," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(1), pages 80-97, March.
    19. Patricia Justino, 2010. "War and Poverty," HiCN Working Papers 81, Households in Conflict Network.
    20. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    21. Patricia Justino, 2006. "On the Links between Violent Conflict and Chronic Poverty: How Much Do We Really Know?," HiCN Working Papers 18, Households in Conflict Network.
    22. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
    23. Juan Alberto Fuentes, 2005. "Violent Conflict and Human Development in Latin America: The Cases of Colombia, El Salvador and Guatemala," Human Development Occasional Papers (1992-2007) HDOCPA-2005-10, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    24. Merrouche Ouarda, 2008. "Landmines and Poverty: IV Evidence from Mozambique," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 23-38, April.
    25. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    26. J. Paul Dunne & Ron Smith & Dirk Willenbockel, 2005. "Models Of Military Expenditure And Growth: A Critical Review," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 449-461.
    27. Christopher Blattman, 2008. "From Violence to Voting: War and political participation in Uganda," Working Papers 138, Center for Global Development.
    28. Linda Bilmes, 2006. "The Economic Costs of the Iraq War: An Appraisal Three Years After the Beginning of the Conflict," Working Papers id:387, eSocialSciences.
    29. Francisco M. Gonzalez, "undated". "The Use of Coercion in Society: Insecure Property Rights, Conflict and Economic Backwardness," Working Papers 2010-15, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 09 Sep 2011.
    30. Sandler,Todd & Hartley,Keith, 1995. "The Economics of Defense," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521447287, September.
    31. Jose Luis Evia & Roberto Laserna & Stergios Skaperdas, 2008. "Socio-Political Conflict and Eonomic Performance in Bolivia," Working Papers 070814, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    32. Deger, Saadet & Sen, Somnath, 1983. "Military expenditure, spin-off and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1-2), pages 67-83.
    33. Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), 2007. "Handbook of Defense Economics," Handbook of Defense Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 1.
    34. Ghobarah, Hazem Adam & Huth, Paul & Russett, Bruce, 2003. "Civil Wars Kill and Maim People—Long After the Shooting Stops," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(2), pages 189-202, May.
    35. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1995. "Anarchy and Its Breakdown," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 26-52, February.
    36. Enders, Walter, 2007. "Terrorism: An Empirical Analysis," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 26, pages 815-866, Elsevier.
    37. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    38. Gardeazabal, Javier, 2010. "Methods for Measuring Aggregate Costs of Conflict," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    39. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13938.
    40. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Jeliazkov, Ivan, 2004. "Comment on "The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1033-1037, July.
    41. Adam Asmundo, 2008. "The cost of protection racket in Sicily," Global Crime, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 221-240, August.
    42. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios, 2007. "Economics of Conflict: An Overview," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 649-709, Elsevier.
    43. Christopher Blattman, 2008. "From Violence to Voting: War and political participation in Uganda," Working Papers 138, Center for Global Development.
    44. Miguel, Edward & Roland, Gérard, 2011. "The long-run impact of bombing Vietnam," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 1-15, September.
    45. Christopher Blattman & Jeannie Annan, 2010. "The Consequences of Child Soldiering," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 882-898, November.
    46. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    47. Carlos Seiglie, 2016. "Openness of the economy, terms of trade, and arms," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(3), pages 748-759, January.
    48. Ram, Rati, 1995. "Defense expenditure and economic growth," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 251-274, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Grote, Ulrike & Nguyen, Thanh-Tung & Nguyen, Trung Thanh & Neubacher, Frank, 2024. "Determinants and impacts of rural crime victimization: Evidence from a case study in Southeast Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. López Cruz, Iván G., 2019. "Policing, schooling and human capital accumulation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 572-597.
    3. Julia Bluszcz & Marica Valente, 2022. "The Economic Costs of Hybrid Wars: The Case of Ukraine," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 1-25, January.
    4. Matteo Pazzona, 2020. "Do victims of crime trust less but participate more in social organizations?," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 49-73, March.
    5. Aleksandar Kešeljević & Rok Spruk, 2024. "Estimating the effects of Syrian civil war," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 671-703, February.
    6. Yvonne Giesing & Reem Hassan, 2021. "Between Hope and Despair: Egypt's Revolution and Migration Intentions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9237, CESifo.
    7. Clemens, Michael A., 2021. "Violence, development, and migration waves: Evidence from Central American child migrant apprehensions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    8. Gardeazabal, Javier & Vega Bayo, Ainhoa, 2016. "The Economic Cost of Armed Conflict," DFAEII Working Papers info:eu-repo/grantAgreeme, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    9. Isabel Ruiz & Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2013. "The Economics of Forced Migration," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(6), pages 772-784, June.
    10. Anna I. Efimova, 2018. "Illicit Transnational Enterprises and the State," Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law, Center for Crisis Society Studies, vol. 11(1).
    11. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2011. "Development and large scale violence," Discussion Papers Series 433, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    12. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Kler, Parvinder, 2016. "The geographical spillover of armed conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 109-119.
    13. Joseph Mawejje & Patrick McSharry, 2021. "The economic cost of conflict: Evidence from South Sudan," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 1969-1990, November.
    14. Vahabi,Mehrdad, 2019. "The Political Economy of Predation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107591370.
    15. Nathan Fiala & Stergios Skaperdas, 2011. "Economic Perspectives on Civil Wars," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Vincenzo Bove & Leandro Eliay & Ron P Smith, 2014. "The relationship between panel and synthetic control estimators of the effect of civil war," BCAM Working Papers 1406, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    17. Parashari, Gopal Sharan & Kumar, Vimal, 2020. "Destruction and settlement norms as determinants of conflict: An evolutionary perspective," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    18. López Cruz, Iván & Torrens, Gustavo, 2023. "Hidden drivers of violence diffusion: Evidence from illegal oil siphoning in Mexico," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 26-70.
    19. Pinedo, Wilman Iglesias; Fulginiti, Lilyan E.; Perrin, Richard K., 2024. "The Cost of Armed Conflict to Agriculture in Colombia," Research on World Agricultural Economy, Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte Ltd (NASS), vol. 5(3), September.
    20. Horatiu Rus, 2014. "Corruption, conflict and the management of natural resources," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 355-386, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    2. Olaf J de Groot & Carlos Bozzoli & Anousheh Alamir & Tilman Brück, 2022. "The global economic burden of violent conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 259-276, March.
    3. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2021. "The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 111-131, August.
    4. Anderton,Charles H. & Carter,John R., 2009. "Principles of Conflict Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521875578, December.
    5. Ganegodage, K. Renuka & Rambaldi, Alicia N., 2014. "Economic consequences of war: Evidence from Sri Lanka," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 42-53.
    6. Hönig, Tillman, 2017. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 83302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Christopher Blattman, 2009. "Civil War: A Review of Fifty Years of Research," Working Papers id:2231, eSocialSciences.
    8. Tilman Br�ck & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Andrew Tedesco & Alexandra Avdeenko, 2013. "Measuring Conflict Exposure in Micro-Level Surveys," HiCN Working Papers 153, Households in Conflict Network.
    9. Nathan Fiala & Stergios Skaperdas, 2011. "Economic Perspectives on Civil Wars," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Achyuta Adhvaryu & James Fenske, 2013. "War, resilience and political engagement in Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2013-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    11. Vincenzo Bove & Leandro Eliay & Ron P Smith, 2014. "The relationship between panel and synthetic control estimators of the effect of civil war," BCAM Working Papers 1406, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    12. Syed Hasanat Shah & Hafsa Hasnat & Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad, 2016. "The Effects of the Human Cost of Terror on National Income, Private Consumption and Investment in Pakistan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(2), pages 216-235, September.
    13. Novta, Natalija & Pugacheva, Evgenia, 2021. "The macroeconomic costs of conflict," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Alptekin, Aynur & Levine, Paul, 2012. "Military expenditure and economic growth: A meta-analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 636-650.
    15. Vahabi,Mehrdad, 2019. "The Political Economy of Predation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107591370.
    16. Jose-Luis Evia & Roberto Laserna & Stergios Skaperdas, 2008. "Socio-Political Conflict and Economic Performance in Bolivia," CESifo Working Paper Series 2249, CESifo.
    17. Tillman Hönig, 2019. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," HiCN Working Papers 293, Households in Conflict Network.
    18. Patricia Justino, 2012. "Shared Societies and Armed Conflict: Costs, Inequality and the Benefits of Peace," HiCN Working Papers 125, Households in Conflict Network.
    19. Hannes Mueller, 2016. "Growth and Violence: Argument for a Per Capita Measure of Civil War," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 473-497, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    conflict; property rights; governance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2704. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.