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Debt Moratoria: Evidence from Student Loan Forbearance

Author

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  • Michael Dinerstein
  • Constantine Yannelis
  • Ching-Tse Chen
Abstract
We evaluate the effects of the 2020 student debt moratorium that paused payments for student loan borrowers. Using administrative credit panel data, we show that the payment pause led to a sharp drop in student loan payments and delinquencies for borrowers subject to the debt moratorium, as well as an increase in credit scores. We find a large stimulus effect, as borrowers substitute increased private debt for paused public debt. Comparing borrowers whose loans were frozen with borrowers whose loans were not frozen due to differences in whether the government owned the loans, we show that borrowers used the new liquidity to increase borrowing on credit cards, mortgages, and auto loans rather than avoid delinquencies. The effects are concentrated among borrowers without prior delinquencies, who saw no change in credit scores, and we see little effects following student loan forgiveness announcements. The results highlight an important complementarity between liquidity and credit, as liquidity increases the demand for credit even as the supply of credit is fixed.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Dinerstein & Constantine Yannelis & Ching-Tse Chen, 2023. "Debt Moratoria: Evidence from Student Loan Forbearance," CESifo Working Paper Series 10422, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10422
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lourie, Ben & Nekrasov, Alexander & Yoo, Il Sun, 2023. "The impact of debt forbearance on borrowers’ financial behavior and labor outcomes: Evidence from student loans," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Yasin Kür¸sat Önder & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & Jose Villegas, 2023. "Debt Moratorium: Theory and Evidence," Borradores de Economia 1253, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Boutros, Michael & Clara, Nuno & Gomes, Francisco, 2024. "Borrow now, pay even later: A quantitative analysis of student debt payment plans," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    4. Michael Boutros & Nuno Clara & Francisco Gomes, 2023. "Borrow Now, Pay Even Later: A Quantitative Analysis of Student Debt Payment Plans," Staff Working Papers 23-54, Bank of Canada.
    5. Christine L. Dobridge & Joanne W. Hsu & Mike Zabek, 2024. "Personal Tax Changes and Financial Well-being: Evidence from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-029, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    debt moratoria; student loans;

    JEL classification:

    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • I22 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Educational Finance; Financial Aid

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