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The Employment Effects of the October 2003 Increase in the National Minimum Wage

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Dickens
  • Mirko Draca
Abstract
There is a growing body of research that measures employment effects of the minimum wage by using longitudinal data on individuals to compare job loss of workers affected by a minimum wage increase with those who are not directly affected. This sort of study requires good quality wage data in order to clearly identify these treatment and control groups. Much of the evidence on the impact of the UK minimum wage uses this technique with poor quality wage data. This paper examines the impact of the October 2003 increase in the National Minimum Wage (NMW) using a much better measure of the wage. We find insignificant negative effects on the employment retention rates of all adults and, most notably, male workers. Analysis of the probability of employment retention across different hourly wage rates also show how sensitive this methodology can be to different definitions of the treatment and control group.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Dickens & Mirko Draca, 2005. "The Employment Effects of the October 2003 Increase in the National Minimum Wage," CEP Discussion Papers dp0693, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0693
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Machin, Stephen & Manning, Alan & Rahman, Lupin, 2002. "Where the minimum wage bites hard: the introduction of the UK national minimum wage to a low wage sector," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20070, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Mark B. Stewart, 2004. "The employment effects of the national minimum wage," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(494), pages 110-116, March.
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    4. Mark B. Stewart, 2004. "The Impact of the Introduction of the U.K. Minimum Wage on the Employment Probabilities of Low-Wage Workers," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(1), pages 67-97, March.
    5. Kramarz, Francis & Philippon, Thomas, 2001. "The impact of differential payroll tax subsidies on minimum wage employment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 115-146, October.
    6. Dickens, Richard & Alan Manning, 2003. "The Impact of the National Minimum Wage on the Wage Distribution in a Low-Wage Sector," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 60, Royal Economic Society.
    7. Stephen Machin & Alan Manning, 1992. "Minimum Wages," CEP Discussion Papers dp0080, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Richard Dickens & Alan Manning, 2004. "Has the national minimum wage reduced UK wage inequality?," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 167(4), pages 613-626, November.
    9. Linneman, Peter, 1982. "The Economic Impacts of Minimum Wage Laws: A New Look at an Old Question," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(3), pages 443-469, June.
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    11. repec:bla:obuest:v:64:y:2002:i:0:p:583-605 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Stephen Machin & Alan Manning & Lupin Rahman, 2003. "Where the Minimum Wage Bites Hard: Introduction of Minimum Wages to a Low Wage Sector," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 154-180, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fidrmuc, Jan & Tena, J. D., 2018. "UK national minimum wage and labor market outcomes of young workers," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-28.
    2. Brewer, Mike & Crossley, Thomas F. & Zilio, Federico, 2019. "What Do We Really Know about the Employment Effects of the UK's National Minimum Wage?," IZA Discussion Papers 12369, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Cabras, Stefano & Fidrmuc, Jan & de Dios Tena Horrillo, Juan, 2017. "Minimum wage and employment: Escaping the parametric straitjacket," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 11, pages 1-20.
    4. Mark B. Stewart & Joanna K. Swaffield, 2008. "The Other Margin: Do Minimum Wages Cause Working Hours Adjustments for Low‐Wage Workers?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 148-167, February.
    5. M. K. Jones & R. J. Jones & P. L. Latreille & P. D. Murphy & P. J. Sloane, 2013. "A regional analysis of flows into and out of the UK national minimum wage," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(21), pages 3074-3087, July.
    6. Alex Bryson & P Willman, 2007. "Union Organization in Great Britain," CEP Discussion Papers dp0774, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. James Bishop, 2018. "The Effect of Minimum Wage Increases on Wages, Hours Worked and Job Loss," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Jan Fidrmuc & J. D. Tena, 2013. "National Minimum Wage and Employment of Young Workers in the UK," CESifo Working Paper Series 4286, CESifo.
    9. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2012. "National minimum wage and labour market outcomes of young workers," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws121209, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    10. repec:ilo:ilowps:485325 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Herr, Hansjörg. & Ruoff, Bea., 2014. "Wage dispersion : empirical developments, explanations, and reform options," ILO Working Papers 994853253402676, International Labour Organization.
    12. Jan Fidrmuc & Juan D. Tena, 2019. "Minimum Wage and Young Workers: UK Evidence," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(04), pages 19-22, January.
    13. repec:ces:ifodic:v:16:y:2019:i:4:p:50000000004803 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Michael Stops & Peter Dolton & Chiara Rosazza-Bondibene, 2012. "The Spatial Analysis of the Employment Effect of the Minimum Wage: Case of the UK 1999-2010," ERSA conference papers ersa12p225, European Regional Science Association.
    15. Metcalf, David, 2007. "Why has the British national minimum wage had little or no impact on employment?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19742, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Yang, Qiming & Zhang, Xiaobo & Zhu, Wu, 2016. "Have Chinese firms become smaller? If so, why?:," IFPRI discussion papers 1558, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    17. Richard Dickens & Rebecca Riley & David Wilkinson, 2015. "A Re-examination of the Impact of the UK National Minimum Wage on Employment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 841-864, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Minimum Wages; Employment Transitions; Wages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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