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Reflections on the Macro Foundations of the Middle Class in the Developing World

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  • Birdsall, Nancy
Abstract
In this working paper I define inclusive growth as growth conducive to increasing the size and economic command of the middle class. I suggest a definition of the middle class based on absolute and relative measures of country-based income distributions, and present evidence of change in the size of the “middle class” for selected developing countries. I then review how macroeconomic policies shape the environment and incentives for inclusive growth, focusing on three areas: fiscal discipline, the more rule-based the better; a fair tax and redistribution system; and a business friendly exchange rate. The adoption of macro policies that favor the middle class lays the foundation for more economically and politically sustainable development. While on the whole sound macro policy that is good for the middle class is also likely to be pro-poor, tradeoffs may exist with respect to tax, expenditure and transfer programs and responses to economic shocks. Governments should consider the weighted welfare outcomes of alternative approaches to macro policy, rather than un-weighted growth or overly weighted poverty outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Birdsall, Nancy, 2007. "Reflections on the Macro Foundations of the Middle Class in the Developing World," Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, Working Paper Series qt4nt1n232, Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, UC Santa Cruz.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:glinre:qt4nt1n232
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nancy Birdsall, 2008. "Income Distribution: Effects on Growth and Development," Chapters, in: Amitava Krishna Dutt & Jaime Ros (ed.), International Handbook of Development Economics, Volumes 1 & 2, volume 0, chapter 48, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
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    5. Anne O. Krueger, 2004. "Virtuous in old age : how the IFIs can help prepare for demographic change," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 243-255.
    6. Kraay, Aart, 2006. "When is growth pro-poor? Evidence from a panel of countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 198-227, June.
    7. Barro, Robert J, 2000. "Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-32, March.
    8. -, 2006. "Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2006," Balance Preliminar de las Economías de América Latina y el Caribe, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 967 edited by Eclac.
    9. Carol Graham & Stefano Pettinato & Nancy Birdsall, 2000. "Stuck in the Tunnel: Is Globalization Muddling the Middle Class?," LIS Working papers 277, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    10. Tanzi, Vito & Zee, Howell H., 2000. "Tax Policy for Emerging Markets: Developing Countries," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 53(2), pages 299-322, June.
    11. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    12. repec:bla:devpol:v:25:y:2007:i:5:p:575-598 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Nancy Birdsall, 2007. "Do No Harm: Aid, Weak Institutions, and the Missing Middle in Africa," Working Papers 113, Center for Global Development.
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    Cited by:

    1. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Income Levels, Governance and Inclusive Human Development in Sub-Saharan Africa," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 71-103, February.
    2. Joaquín Prieto, 2021. "Poverty traps and affluence shields: Modelling the persistence of income position in Chile," Working Papers 576, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    3. Amade Peter & Ibrahim H. Bakari, 2018. "Impact of Population Growth on Economic Growth in Africa: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach (1980 -2015)," Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 6(4), pages :412-427, December.
    4. Florencia Torche & Luis F. Lopez-Calva, 2013. "Stability and Vulnerability of the Latin American Middle Class," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 409-435, December.
    5. Zhang, Yumei & Wang, Xinxin & Chen, Kevin, 2012. "Growth and Distributive Effects of Public Infrastructure Investments in China," Conference papers 332234, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Reham Rizk & Ricardo Nogales, 2017. "Revisiting the Middle-Class Myth: Evidence From A Cross-Country Analysis of African Social Progress," Working Papers 1139, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 2003.
    7. Oasis Kodila-Tedika & Simplice A. Asongu & Julio Mukendi Kayembe, 2016. "Middle Class in Africa: Determinants and Consequences," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 527-549, October.
    8. David Tschirley & Thomas Reardon & Michael Dolislager & Jason Snyder, 2015. "The Rise of a Middle Class in East and Southern Africa: Implications for Food System Transformation," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 628-646, July.
    9. Joseph Deutsch & Jacques Silber & Gaston Yalonetzky, 2014. "On Bi-Polarization and The Middle Class in Latin America: A Look At the First Decade of the Twenty-First Century," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S2), pages 332-352, November.
    10. Milanovic, Branko, 2010. "Income level and income inequality in the Euro-Mediterranean region: from the Principate to the Islamic conquest," MPRA Paper 46640, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Musa Abdu & Abdullahi Buba & Abdul kareem Alhassan, 2018. "Macroeconomic Stability and Inclusive Growth in Nigeria: A Cointegration Approach," Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 6(3), pages :370-389, September.
    12. Florencia Torche & Luis F. Lopez-Calva, 2013. "Stability and Vulnerability of the Latin American Middle Class," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 409-435, December.
    13. Oluwatoyin Matthew & Anthonia Adeniji & Romanus Osabohien & Tomike Olawande & Tolulope Atolagbe, 2020. "Gender Inequality, Maternal Mortality and Inclusive Growth in Nigeria," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 763-780, February.
    14. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Iva Tomic & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2010. "What Happened to the Middle Class in the New Market Economies? The Case of Croatia and Poland," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 12(1), pages 9-44, April.
    16. Liang Frank Shao & Melanie Krause, 2020. "Rising mean incomes for whom?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-20, December.
    17. Radhouane FILALI & Anis BOUABID, 2016. "Profils Et Déterminants Socioéconomiques De La Classe Moyenne En Tunisie," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 44, pages 79-101.
    18. David Tschirley & Thomas Reardon & Michael Dolislager & Jason Snyder, 2015. "The Rise of a Middle Class in East and Southern Africa: Implications for Food System Transformation," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 628-646, July.
    19. Prieto Suarez, Joaquin, 2021. "Poverty traps and affluence shields: modelling the persistence of income position in Chile," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110719, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Tsiry ANDRIANAMPIARIVO, 2014. "Moderate Prosperity, an adaptation of the Middle Class concept to a Malagasy rural area: the case of Itasy," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2014-20, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).

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