[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdi/wpaper/1379.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Breaking the wave of democracy: The effect of foreign aid on the incumbent’s re-election probability

Author

Listed:
  • Grégoire ROTA-GRAZIOSI

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

  • Clémence VERGNE
  • Blanca MORENO DODSON
Abstract
We investigate whether foreign aid affects the probability of incumbent’s re-election and then the Schumpeterian quality of democracy in developing countries. We present a simple theoretical framework, which captures the competitiveness of elections through the Tullock’s approach based on the Contest Success Function. We obtain an ambiguous theoretical effect of foreign aid on the incumbent probability to be reelected: Foreign aid increases the prize of the electoral contest stimulating the challenger to increase his campaign effort; But, the incumbent may divert part of the aid, improving his advantage and reducing political competition. We investigate empirically this effect using panel data from 60 aid-recipient countries between 1980 and 2005. Our analysis shows that foreign aid increases the incumbent’s re-election probabilities. However, this effect depends on recipients’ democratic level and on the nature of foreign aid, consistently with our theoretical framework. While financial aid increases the probability of incumbent’s re-election, political aid, especially through assistances in developing competitive electoral systems, reduces this probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Grégoire ROTA-GRAZIOSI & Clémence VERGNE & Blanca MORENO DODSON, 2012. "Breaking the wave of democracy: The effect of foreign aid on the incumbent’s re-election probability," Working Papers 201231, CERDI.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1379
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://publi.cerdi.org/ed/2012/2012.31.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Besley, Timothy & Case, Anne, 1995. "Incumbent Behavior: Vote-Seeking, Tax-Setting, and Yardstick Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 25-45, March.
    2. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2009. "Aid effectiveness for poverty reduction: macroeconomic overview and emerging issues," Working Papers P05, FERDI.
    3. Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2008. "How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2203-2220, December.
    4. Jonathan Isham & Michael Woolcock & Lant Pritchett & Gwen Busby, 2005. "The Varieties of Resource Experience: Natural Resource Export Structures and the Political Economy of Economic Growth," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 19(2), pages 141-174.
    5. Brender, Adi, 2003. "The effect of fiscal performance on local government election results in Israel: 1989-1998," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2187-2205, September.
    6. Alesina, Alberto & Dollar, David, 2000. "Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 33-63, March.
    7. Hoffmann, Magnus & Rota-Graziosi, Grégoire, 2012. "Endogenous timing in general rent-seeking and conflict models," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 168-184.
    8. Ashish Chaturvedi, 2005. "Rigging elections with violence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 189-202, July.
    9. Konrad, Kai A., 2002. "Investment in the absence of property rights; the role of incumbency advantages," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1521-1537, September.
    10. Jakob Svensson, 2000. "Foreign aid and rent-seeking," Springer Books, in: Roger D. Congleton & Kai A. Konrad & Arye L. Hillman (ed.), 40 Years of Research on Rent Seeking 2, pages 165-189, Springer.
    11. Robert J. Shiller, 1997. "Why Do People Dislike Inflation?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 13-70, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 2009. "Testing the neocon agenda: Democracy in resource-rich societies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 293-308, April.
    13. Todd Moss & Gunilla Pettersson & Nicolas van de Walle, 2006. "An Aid-Institutions Paradox? A Review Essay on Aid Dependency and State Building in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 74, Center for Global Development.
    14. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Vlachaki, Irene, 2012. "When does more aid imply less democracy? An empirical examination," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 132-146.
    15. Knack, Stephen, 2009. "Sovereign rents and quality of tax policy and administration," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 359-371, September.
    16. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson & Thierry Verdier, 2004. "Alfred Marshall Lecture: Kleptocracy and Divide-and-Rule: A Model of Personal Rule," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 162-192, 04/05.
    17. Yogesh Uppal, 2009. "The disadvantaged incumbents: estimating incumbency effects in Indian state legislatures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 9-27, January.
    18. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    19. Maizels, Alfred & Nissanke, Machiko K., 1984. "Motivations for aid to developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 12(9), pages 879-900, September.
    20. Dunning, Thad, 2004. "Conditioning the Effects of Aid: Cold War Politics, Donor Credibility, and Democracy in Africa," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 409-423, April.
    21. Nikolay Marinov, 2005. "Do Economic Sanctions Destabilize Country Leaders?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 564-576, July.
    22. Magnus Hoffmann & Grégoire Rota-Graziosi, 2012. "Endogenous timing in general rent-seeking and conflict models," Post-Print hal-01904528, HAL.
    23. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521707404, September.
    24. Paul Collier & Pedro Vicente, 2012. "Violence, bribery, and fraud: the political economy of elections in Sub-Saharan Africa," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 117-147, October.
    25. Vergne, Clémence, 2009. "Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 63-77, March.
    26. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti & José Tavares, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 197-266.
    27. Frey, Bruno S. & Schneider, Friedrich, 1986. "Competing models of international lending activity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 225-245, March.
    28. Lancaster, Carol, 1999. "Aid to Africa," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226468389, December.
    29. Omar M. G. Keshk, 2003. "CDSIMEQ: A program to implement two-stage probit least squares," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(2), pages 157-167, June.
    30. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521881029, September.
    31. Hoffmann, Magnus & Rota-Graziosi, Grégoire, 2012. "Endogenous timing in general rent-seeking and conflict models," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 168-184.
    32. Sajal Lahiri & Pascalis Raimondos‐Møller, 2004. "Donor Strategy under the Fungibility of Foreign Aid," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 213-231, July.
    33. Boone, Peter, 1996. "Politics and the effectiveness of foreign aid," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 289-329, February.
    34. Morrison, Kevin M., 2009. "Oil, Nontax Revenue, and the Redistributional Foundations of Regime Stability," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(1), pages 107-138, January.
    35. Giacomo Chiozza & H. E. Goemans, 2004. "International Conflict and the Tenure of Leaders: Is War Still Ex Post Inefficient?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(3), pages 604-619, July.
    36. Ilyana Kuziemko & Eric Werker, 2006. "How Much Is a Seat on the Security Council Worth? Foreign Aid and Bribery at the United Nations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(5), pages 905-930, October.
    37. Taylor C. Boas & F. Daniel Hidalgo, 2011. "Controlling the Airwaves: Incumbency Advantage and Community Radio in Brazil," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 869-885, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Antoine Cazals & Alexandre Sauquet, 2015. "How do elections affect international cooperation? Evidence from environmental treaty participation," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 263-285, March.
    2. Alexandre SAUQUET & Antoine CAZALS, 2013. "When does cooperation win and why? Political cycles and participation in international environmental agreements," Working Papers 201320, CERDI.
    3. Miguel Niño-Zarazúa & Ana Horigoshi & Rachel M. Gisselquist, 2022. "Aid's impact on democracy," Working Papers 248, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    4. Banaszewska, Monika & Bischoff, Ivo, 2021. "Grants-in-aid and election outcomes in recipient jurisdictions: The impact of EU funds on mayoral elections in Poland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Abdoul Aziz NDIAYE & Birane DIOUF & Mamadou Abdoulaye KONTE, 2022. "Les déterminants économiques du vote aux élections présidentielles dans les pays de l’UEMOA," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 56, pages 5-23.
    6. Monika Banaszewska & Ivo Bischoff, 2018. "Grants-in-aid and the prospect of re-election: The impact of EU funds on mayoral elections in Poland," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201822, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    7. Rachel M. Gisselquist & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa & Melissa Samarin, 2021. "Does aid support democracy?: A systematic review of the literature," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-14, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blanca Moreno Dodson & Grégoire Rota-Graziosi & Clémence Vergne, 2012. "Breaking the wave of democracy: The effect of foreign aid on the incumbent's re-election probability," CERDI Working papers halshs-00722375, HAL.
    2. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Vlachaki, Irene, 2012. "When does more aid imply less democracy? An empirical examination," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 132-146.
    3. Reinsberg, Bernhard, 2015. "Foreign Aid Responses to Political Liberalization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 46-61.
    4. Balázs Szent-Iványi, 2015. "Are Democratising Countries Rewarded with Higher Levels of Foreign Aid?," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 65(4), pages 593-615, December.
    5. Ravetti, Chiara & Sarr, Mare & Swanson, Tim, 2018. "Foreign aid and political instability in resource-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 277-294.
    6. Yu Wang, 2013. "Veto Players and Foreign Aid Inflows," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 391-408, September.
    7. Tierney, Michael J. & Nielson, Daniel L. & Hawkins, Darren G. & Roberts, J. Timmons & Findley, Michael G. & Powers, Ryan M. & Parks, Bradley & Wilson, Sven E. & Hicks, Robert L., 2011. "More Dollars than Sense: Refining Our Knowledge of Development Finance Using AidData," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 1891-1906.
    8. Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Aid and Conditionality," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4415-4523, Elsevier.
    9. Falcó-Gimeno, Albert & Jurado, Ignacio, 2011. "Minority governments and budget deficits: The role of the opposition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 554-565, September.
    10. Axel Dreher & Stephan Klasen & James Raymond Vreeland & Eric Werker, 2013. "The Costs of Favoritism: Is Politically Driven Aid Less Effective?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 157-191.
    11. Iimi, Atsushi & Ojima, Yasuhisa, 2008. "Complementarities between grants and loans," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 109-141, March.
    12. repec:got:cegedp:97 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Zohid Askarov & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2013. "Does aid improve democracy and governance? A meta-regression analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 601-628, December.
    14. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2016. "Election cycles in natural resource rents: Empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 79-93.
    15. Kersting, Erasmus & Kilby, Christopher, 2014. "Aid and democracy redux," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 125-143.
    16. Fuchs, Andreas & Dreher, Axel & Hodler, Roland & Parks, Bradley C. & Raschky, Paul, 2015. "Aid on Demand: African Leaders and the Geography of China s Foreign Assistance," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112838, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Mare Sarr & Chiara Ravetti & Tim Swanson, 2015. "Why Give Aid to Resource-Rich Autocrats?," CIES Research Paper series 39-2015, Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute.
    18. Helen V. Milner & Daniel L. Nielson & Michael G. Findley, 2016. "Citizen preferences and public goods: comparing preferences for foreign aid and government programs in Uganda," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 219-245, June.
    19. Broich, Tobias, 2017. "Do authoritarian regimes receive more Chinese development finance than democratic ones? Empirical evidence for Africa," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 180-207.
    20. Robert K. Fleck & Christopher Kilby, 2006. "World Bank Independence: A Model and Statistical Analysis of US Influence," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 224-240, May.
    21. Joseph Wright, 2009. "How Foreign Aid Can Foster Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 552-571, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign aid; Elections; Incumbent’s advantage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1379. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vincent Mazenod (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceauvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.