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When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870

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  • Bouscasse, P.
  • Nakamura, E.
  • Steinsson, J.
Abstract
We provide new estimates of the evolution of productivity in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the population. We develop and implement a new methodology for estimating productivity that accounts for these Malthusian dynamics. In the early part of our sample, we find that productivity growth was zero. Productivity growth began in 1600—almost a century before the Glorious Revolution. We estimate productivity growth of 3% per decade between 1600 and 1760, which increased to 6% per decade between 1770 and 1860. Our estimates attribute much of the increase in output growth during the Industrial Revolution to a falling land share of production, rather than to faster productivity growth. Our evidence helps distinguish between theories of why growth began. In particular, our findings support the idea that broad-based economic change preceded the bourgeois institutional reforms of 17th century England and may have contributed to causing them. We estimate relatively weak Malthusian population forces on real wages. This implies that our model can generate sustained deviations from the "iron law of wages" prior the Industrial Revolution.

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  • Bouscasse, P. & Nakamura, E. & Steinsson, J., 2023. "When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2323, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2323
    Note: pab202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Thomas Philippon, 2022. "Additive Growth," NBER Working Papers 29950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. de la Croix, David & Gobbi, Paula E., 2022. "Population homeostasis in sub-Saharan Africa," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
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    JEL classification:

    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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