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Developing a generic System Dynamics model for building stock transformation towards energy efficiency and low-carbon development

Author

Listed:
  • Zhou, W.
  • Moncaster, A.
  • Reiner, D.
  • Guthrie, P.
Abstract
A Promoting the decarbonisation of buildings requires effective policy measures. An integral part of policy design is ex-ante evaluation of possible policy options and effects. System Dynamics, one of a range of potential modelling paradigms, emphasises the dynamic complexity arising from stock-and-flow structures, feedbacks, non-linearities and time lags of the system in question. It is therefore well placed to model building stock turnover dynamics and the associated energy use and carbon emissions, in order to conduct scenario analysis for policy evaluation. Previous efforts to employ System Dynamics models in buildings in various national contexts are found to have some common fundamental structural and behavioural limitations. We present an improved formulation that includes both building stock disaggregation and dynamics of energy-related retrofits. The model is characterised by greater transparency facilitating reproducibility and further improvements, high structural and functional flexibility for either extensions or reductions depending upon needs, and high generality and adaptability in diverse applications. It can be used as a stand-alone model or as part of a larger model for policy evaluation and scenario analysis exploring the transformation of building stock from improving energy efficiency and shifting towards low-carbon development.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, W. & Moncaster, A. & Reiner, D. & Guthrie, P., 2020. "Developing a generic System Dynamics model for building stock transformation towards energy efficiency and low-carbon development," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2057, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2057
    Note: amm24, dmr40, pmg31
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    File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe2057.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Liu, Bingsheng & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei, 2022. "China’s commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060: An integrated dynamic emission assessment model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    building stock; System Dynamics; disaggregation; aging chain; energy retrofit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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