[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/0837.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Predicting market power in wholesale electricity markets

Author

Listed:
  • Newbery, D.
Abstract
The traditional measure of market power is the HHI, which gives implausible results given the low elasticity of demand in electricity spot markets, unless it is adapted to take account of contracting. In its place the Residual Supply Index has been proposed as a more suitable index to measure potential market power in electricity markets, notably in California and more recently in the EU Sector Inquiry. The paper investigates its value in identifying the ability of firms to raise prices in an electricity market with contracts and capacity constraints and find that it is most useful for the case of a single dominant supplier, or with a natural extension, for the case of a symmetric oligoply. Estimates from the Sector Inquiry seem to fit this case better than might be expected, but suggests an alternative defintion of the RSI defined over flexible output that should give a more reliable relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Newbery, D., 2008. "Predicting market power in wholesale electricity markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0837, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0837
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/category/publications/
    File Function: Working Paper Version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kreps, David M & Wilson, Robert, 1982. "Sequential Equilibria," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 863-894, July.
    2. Allaz Blaise & Vila Jean-Luc, 1993. "Cournot Competition, Forward Markets and Efficiency," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-16, February.
    3. David M. Newbery, 2005. "Electricity liberalization in Britain: The quest for a satisfactory wholesale market design," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 43-70.
    4. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    5. Ferreira José Luis, 2006. "The Role of Observability in Futures Markets," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-24, June.
    6. David Newbery, 2008. "Analytic Solutions for Supply Function Equilibria: Uniqueness and Stability," Working Papers EPRG 0824, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    7. Facchini, Giovanni & Mayda, Anna Maria & Mishra, Prachi, 2011. "Do interest groups affect US immigration policy?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 114-128, September.
    8. David M. Newbery, 1998. "Competition, Contracts, and Entry in the Electricity Spot Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(4), pages 726-749, Winter.
    9. MURPHY, Frederic & SMEERS, Yves, 2005. "Forward markets may not decrease market power when capacities are endogenous," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2005028, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    10. Gert Brunekreeft, 2008. "Ownership Unbundling in Electricity Markets – A Social Cost Benefit Analysis of the German TSOs," Working Papers EPRG 0816, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    11. Blume, Lawrence, 2002. "Stigma and Social Control," Economics Series 119, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    12. Blaise Allaz & Jean-Luc Vila, 1993. "Cournot Competition, Forward Markets and Efficiency," Post-Print hal-00511806, HAL.
    13. Brunekreeft, G., 2008. "Ownership Unbuilding in Electricity Markets - A Social Cost Benefit Analysis of the German TSO'S," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0833, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Renato Fernandes & Isabel Soares, 2022. "Reviewing Explanatory Methodologies of Electricity Markets: An Application to the Iberian Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
    2. Machiel Mulder, 2015. "Competition in the Dutch Electricity Market: An Empirical Analysis over 2006-2011," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    3. David P. Brown & Andrew Eckert, 2017. "Electricity market mergers with endogenous forward contracting," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 269-310, June.
    4. Mulder, Machiel & Schoonbeek, Lambert, 2013. "Decomposing changes in competition in the Dutch electricity market through the residual supply index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 100-107.
    5. Genc, Talat S., 2017. "OPEC and demand response to crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 238-246.
    6. Dzikri Firmansyah Hakam, 2018. "Market Power Modelling in Electricity Market: A Critical Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 347-356.
    7. Tran Dang Khoa, 2018. "Market Efficiency and Market Power in Vietnam Competitive Generation Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 181-189.
    8. Genc, Talat S., 2016. "Measuring demand responses to wholesale electricity prices using market power indices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 247-260.
    9. Poletti, Stephen, 2021. "Market Power in the New Zealand electricity wholesale market 2010–2016," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    10. Grossi, Luigi & Heim, Sven & Waterson, Michael, 2014. "A vision of the European energy future? The impact of the German response to the Fukushima earthquake," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1047, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    11. Vítor Marques & Adelino Fortunato & Isabel Soares, 2011. "Application of a structural model to a wholesale electricity market: The Spanish market from January 1999 to June 2007," GEMF Working Papers 2011-02, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    12. Holmberg, Pär & Tangerås, Thomas & Ahlqvist, Victor, 2018. "Central- versus Self-Dispatch in Electricity Markets," Working Paper Series 1257, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 27 Mar 2019.
    13. Hesamzadeh, M.R. & Biggar, D.R. & Bunn, D.W. & Moiseeva, E., 2020. "The impact of generator market power on the electricity hedge market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    14. repec:dgr:rugsom:13003-eef is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Anderson, Edward & Holmberg, Pär, 2018. "Price instability in multi-unit auctions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 318-341.
    16. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Erten, Ibrahim, 2022. "Price spikes, temporary price caps, and welfare effects of regulatory interventions on wholesale electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    17. Vasin, A. & Daylova, E., 2013. "Analysis of the Short-Term Efficiency of Mechanisms of the Wholesale Electricity Market," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 35-60.
    18. Mariola Ndrio & Khaled Alshehri & Subhonmesh Bose, 2020. "A Scalar Parameterized Mechanism for Two-Sided Markets," Papers 2003.01206, arXiv.org.
    19. Hakam, Dzikri Firmansyah, 2019. "Mitigating the risk of market power abuse in electricity sector restructuring: Evidence from Indonesia," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 181-191.
    20. repec:ers:journl:v:xv:y:2012:i:sie:p:65-108 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Vítor Marques & Isabel Soares & Adelino Fortunato, 2012. "Application of a Structural Model to the Spanish Electricity Wholesale Market," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 65-108.
    22. Grossi, Luigi & Heim, Sven & Waterson, Michael, 2017. "The impact of the German response to the Fukushima earthquake," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 450-465.
    23. Hesamzadeh, Mohammad R. & Biggar, Darryl R. & Hosseinzadeh, Nasser, 2011. "The TC-PSI indicator for forecasting the potential for market power in wholesale electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5988-5998, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Holmberg, Pär & Newbery, David, 2010. "The supply function equilibrium and its policy implications for wholesale electricity auctions," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 209-226, December.
    2. Roques, F.A. & Savva , N.S., 2006. "Price Cap Regulation and Investment Incentives under Demand Uncertainty," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0636, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Scholz, Sebastian, 2010. "Derivatives and Default Risk," Discussion Papers in Economics 11317, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    4. Holmberg, Pär & Willems, Bert, 2015. "Relaxing competition through speculation: Committing to a negative supply slope," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 159(PA), pages 236-266.
    5. José Luis Ferreira & Praveen Kujal & Stephen Rassenti, 2016. "Multiple Openings and Competitiveness of Forward Markets: Experimental Evidence," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, July.
    6. Miguel Vazquez, 2012. "Analysis of the strategic use of forward contracting in electricity markets," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/13, European University Institute.
    7. Rubin, Ofir David, 2010. "Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800002361, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Gilbert, Richard J & Newberry, David M, 2006. "Electricity Merger Policy in the Shadow of Regulation," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7bh5f7rn, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    9. Simshauser, P., 2020. "Merchant utilities and boundaries of the firm: vertical integration in energy-only markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2039, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Hauteclocque, Adrien de & Glachant, Jean-Michel, 2009. "Long-term energy supply contracts in European competition policy: Fuzzy not crazy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5399-5407, December.
    11. van Koten, Silvester & Ortmann, Andreas, 2013. "Structural versus behavioral remedies in the deregulation of electricity markets: An experimental investigation motivated by policy concerns," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 256-265.
    12. Jordi Brandts & Paul Pezanis‐Christou & Arthur Schram, 2008. "Competition with forward contracts: a laboratory analysis motivated by electricity market design," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(525), pages 192-214, January.
    13. Zhuang, Jifang & Gabriel, Steven A., 2008. "A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 113-147, January.
    14. Veronika Grimm & Gregor Zoettl, 2006. "Access to Commitment Devices Reduces Investment Incentives in Oligopoly," Working Paper Series in Economics 25, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    15. Holmberg, Pär & Tangerås, Thomas & Ahlqvist, Victor, 2018. "Central- versus Self-Dispatch in Electricity Markets," Working Paper Series 1257, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 27 Mar 2019.
    16. Furió, Dolores & Meneu, Vicente, 2010. "Expectations and forward risk premium in the Spanish deregulated power market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 784-793, February.
    17. SMEERS, Yves, 2005. "How well can one measure market power in restructured electricity systems ?," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2005050, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    18. Liski, Matti & Montero, Juan-Pablo, 2006. "Forward trading and collusion in oligopoly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 212-230, November.
    19. Vadim Borokhov, 2015. "Antimonopoly regulation method in energy markets based on the Vickrey-Clarke-Groves mechanism," Papers 1507.04478, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    20. Ray REES & Sebastian SCHOLZ, 2010. "Electricity Market Design for Germany," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 2010-EN.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Residual Supply Index; Cournot equilibrium; Lerner Index; electricity markets; market power;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • K21 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Antitrust Law
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0837. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jake Dyer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.