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Volatility of Price Indices for Heterogeneous Goods with Applications to the Fine Art Market

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  • Fabian Y.R.P. BOCART
  • Christian M. HAFNER
Abstract
Price indices for heterogeneous goods such as real estate or fine art constitute crucial information for institutional or private investors considering alternative investment decisions in times of financial markets turmoil. Classical mean‐variance analysis of alternative investments has been hampered by the lack of a systematic treatment of volatility in these markets. In this paper we propose a hedonic regression framework which explicitly defines an underlying stochastic process for the price index, allowing to treat the volatility parameter as the object of interest. The model can be estimated using maximum likelihood in combination with the Kalman filter. We derive theoretical properties of the volatility estimator and show that it outperforms the standard estimator. We show that extensions to allow for time‐varying volatility are straightforward using a local‐likelihood approach. In an application to a large data set of international blue chip artists, we show that volatility of the art market, although generally lower than that of financial markets, has risen after the financial crisis of 2008–09, but sharply decreased during the recent debt crisis. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Suggested Citation

  • Fabian Y.R.P. BOCART & Christian M. HAFNER, 2015. "Volatility of Price Indices for Heterogeneous Goods with Applications to the Fine Art Market," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2771, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvrp:2771
    Note: In : Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30, 291-312, 2015
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    Cited by:

    1. Dimson, Elroy & Rousseau, Peter L. & Spaenjers, Christophe, 2015. "The price of wine," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 431-449.
    2. Fabian Y.R.P. Bocart & Eric Ghysels & Christian M. Hafner, 2020. "Monthly Art Market Returns," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-22, May.
    3. Arkadiusz J. Derkacz & Artur Gajda, 2022. "Changes in the Structure of the Apartments Rental Segment in Poland During the COVID-19 Pandemic," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 156-166.
    4. Roar Adland & Pierre Cariou & François-Charles Wolff, 2018. "Comparing transaction-based and expert-generated price indices in the market for offshore support vessels," Working Papers halshs-01843720, HAL.
    5. Lin, Min-Bin & Wang, Bingling & Bocart, Fabian Y.R.P. & Hafner, Christian M. & Härdle, Wolfgang K., 2022. "DAI Digital Art Index : a robust price index for heterogeneous digital assets," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2022036, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    6. Fur, Eric Le, 2021. "Fine Wines in a Diversified Portfolio of Collectibles," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315852, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Garay, Urbi, 2021. "Determinants of art prices and performance by movements: Long-run evidence from an emerging market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 413-426.

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