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Prospects for Paris 2015: do major emitters want the same climate ?

Author

Listed:
  • BUCKLE, Simon

    (Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London)

  • MUÛLS, Mirabelle

    (Grantham Institute for Climate Change & Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London)

  • LEIB, Joerg

    (Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London)

  • BRECHET, Thierry

    (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE and Louvain School of Management, Belgium)

Abstract
International negotiations have failed to achieve an ambitious outcome to limit climate risks. A Cournot outcome where countries determine their mitigation commitments in the full knowledge of those by others could be an important step. It would avoid a Stackelberg (leader-follower) outcome where one or more major emitters impose a level of climate risk on the rest of the world. This requires these countries to have sufficiently similar preferences over global cumulative emissions. We develop a novel stylised economic growth model to analyse the dynamics of international negotiations. Economies can be classified according to their committed emissions and the initial level of atmospheric CO2. We define a new metric, the desired mitigation effort, which provides an empirical methodology for comparing and evaluating countries’ mitigation commitments. A numerical calibration suggests a degree of convergence between the major emitters that might allow a Cournot-style agreement at the Paris Conference in 2015.

Suggested Citation

  • BUCKLE, Simon & MUÛLS, Mirabelle & LEIB, Joerg & BRECHET, Thierry, 2014. "Prospects for Paris 2015: do major emitters want the same climate ?," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2014008, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2014008
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    File URL: https://sites.uclouvain.be/core/publications/coredp/coredp2014.html
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Thierry Brechet & Henry Tulkens, 2015. "Climate Policies: A Burden, or a Gain?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 36(3), pages 155-170, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; climate damages; economic growth; game theory; international climate negotiations; mitigation;
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