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Economic Policy Uncertainty in Europe: Spillovers and Common Shocks

Author

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  • Jaromir Baxa
  • Tomas Sestorad
Abstract
This paper proposes a novel approach to decompose the Economic Policy Uncertainty indices of European countries into the common and country-specific components using the time-varying total connectedness. Then, by employing a Bayesian panel VAR model, we assess how common and country-specific uncertainty shocks influence economic activity, prices, and monetary policy, with the shocks identified using zero and sign restrictions. Our results reveal that only common shocks have significant effects on all macroeconomic variables. This result is robust across alternative samples and structural identifications. Therefore, our findings imply that policymakers should focus on uncertainty shocks that are synchronized across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaromir Baxa & Tomas Sestorad, 2024. "Economic Policy Uncertainty in Europe: Spillovers and Common Shocks," Working Papers 2024/9, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2024/9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Common uncertainty; economic policy uncertainty; panel VAR; spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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