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Joint Normality Test for the Returns on the Futures and Spot

In: Handbook of Investment Analysis, Portfolio Management, and Financial Derivatives In 4 Volumes

Author

Listed:
  • Sheng-Syan Chen
  • Cheng Few Lee
  • Keshab Shrestha
Abstract
It is well known that the optimal hedge ratios derived based on the mean-variance approach, the expected utility-maximizing approach, the mean extended-Gini approach, and the generalized semivariance approach will all converge to the minimum-variance hedge ratio if the futures price follows a pure martingale process and if the spot and futures returns are jointly normal. In this chapter, we perform empirical tests to see if the pure martingale and joint normality hypotheses hold using 25 different futures contracts and five different hedging horizons. Our results indicate that the pure martingale hypothesis holds for all commodities and all hedging horizons except for three stock index futures contracts. As for joint normality, we propose two new tests based on the generalized method of moments, which allow for calculating multivariate test statistics that take account of the contemporaneous correlation across spot and futures returns. Our findings show that the joint normality hypothesis generally does not hold except for a few contracts and relatively long hedging horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheng-Syan Chen & Cheng Few Lee & Keshab Shrestha, 2024. "Joint Normality Test for the Returns on the Futures and Spot," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Cheng Few Lee & Alice C Lee & John C Lee (ed.), Handbook of Investment Analysis, Portfolio Management, and Financial Derivatives In 4 Volumes, chapter 33, pages 1129-1158, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789811269943_0033
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    Keywords

    Financial Accounting; Financial Auditing; Mutual Funds; Hedge Funds; Asset Pricing; Options; Portfolio Analysis; Risk Management; Investment Analysis; Momentum Analysis; Behavior Analysis; Futures; Index Futures; CDCs; Financial Econometrics; Statistics; Financial Derivatives; Financial Accounting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • M42 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Auditing
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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