(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)"> (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)">
[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/7819.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows

In: The Regionalization of the World Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Barry Eichengreen
  • Douglas A. Irwin
Abstract
This paper investigates the theory and evidence that history plays a role in shaping the direction of international trade. Because there are reasons to anticipate a positive correlation between the predominant direction of trade flows in the past and membership in preferential arrangements in the present, there may be a tendency to spuriously attribute to preferential arrangements the effects of historical factors and to exaggerate the influence of the former. Thus, the standard gravity-model formulation, which neglects the role of historical factors, suffers from omitted-variables bias. We illustrate these points by analyzing the evolution of trade between 1949 and 1964. We find that historical factors exercise an important influence on trade even after controlling for the arguments of the standard gravity model.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 33-62, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:7819
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7819.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roberts, M. & Tybout, J., 1993. "An Empirical Model of Sunk Costs and the Decision to Export," Papers 4-93-3, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    2. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1997. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, pages 141-168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Richard C. Marston, 1988. "Misalignment of Exchange Rates: Effects on Trade and Industry," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mars88-1.
    4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Ernesto Stein & Shang-Jin Wei, 1998. "Continental Trading Blocs: Are They Natural or Supernatural?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 91-120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Baldwin, Richard, 1988. "Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-785, September.
    6. Shang-Jin Wei & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1998. "Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trade Blocs," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(3), pages 440-453, September.
    7. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    8. Jeffrey Frankel, Ernesto Stein and Shang-jin Wei., 1994. "Trading Blocs: The Natural, the Unnatural, and the Super-Natural," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-034, University of California at Berkeley.
    9. Charles Bean, 1988. "Sterling Misalignment and British Trade Performance," NBER Chapters, in: Misalignment of Exchange Rates: Effects on Trade and Industry, pages 39-76, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    11. Avinash Dixit, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 205-228.
    12. Deardorff, Alan V., 1984. "Testing trade theories and predicting trade flows," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 467-517, Elsevier.
    13. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-564, September.
    14. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Park, Mi-Hee & Koo, Won W., 2005. "Recent Development in Infrastructure and Its Impact on Agricultural and Non-agricultural Trade," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19525, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Laaser, Claus-Friedrich & Schrader, Klaus, 2004. "The Baltic States' integration into the European division of labour," Kiel Working Papers 1234, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Anderson, Michael A. & Smith, Stephen L.S., 2007. "How does history matter? Hysteresis in Canadian trade," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 279-291, December.
    4. Muhammad Ullah & Kazuo Inaba, 2012. "Impact of RTA and PTA on Bangladesh’s Export: Application of a Gravity Model," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 445-460, December.
    5. Deborah L. Swenson, 2007. "Competition and the location of overseas assembly," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 155-175, February.
    6. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2015. "Multi-product firms, exports and exchange rate policies. Evidence from an emerging economy," MPRA Paper 65751, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Yunus Aksoy & Hanno Lustig, 2007. "Exchange Rates, Prices And International Trade In A Model Of Endogenous Market Structure," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(2), pages 160-192, March.
    8. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Entry, Expansion, and Intensity in the US Export Boom, 1987–1992," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 662-675, September.
    9. Halldin, Torbjörn, 2012. "External finance, collateralizable assets and export market entry," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 268, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    10. Elhanan Helpman, 2006. "Trade, FDI, and the Organization of Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 589-630, September.
    11. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    12. Horag Choi & George Alessandria, 2009. "The Role of Exporting and Trade for Entry over the Business Cycle," 2009 Meeting Papers 355, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Lee, Hiro & Roland-Holst, David W., 1998. "Prelude to the pacific century: Overview of the region, leading issues, and methodology," MPRA Paper 82339, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Filip Abraham & Erik Buyst & Sven Geyssens, 1997. "Trade integration in the twentieth century: What does Belgian history tell us?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(4), pages 708-736, December.
    15. Aida Caldera, 2010. "Innovation and exporting: evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(4), pages 657-689, December.
    16. Sjöholm, Fredrik, 1999. "Do Foreign Contacts Enable Firms to Become Exporters?," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 326, Stockholm School of Economics.
    17. Baldwin, Richard E. & Skudelny, Frauke & Taglioni, Daria, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 446, European Central Bank.
    18. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Why Some Firms Export," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 561-569, May.
    19. Peter Egger & Reto Foellmi & Ulrich Schetter & David Torun, 2023. "Gravity with History: On Incumbency Effects in International Trade," Growth Lab Working Papers 219, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    20. Robert J. R. Elliott & Kengo Ikemoto, 2004. "AFTA and the Asian Crisis: Help or Hindrance to ASEAN Intra‐Regional Trade?," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-23, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:7819. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.