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Reducing the Risk of Investment-Based Social Security Reform

In: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment

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  • Martin Feldstein
Abstract
This paper describes the risks implied by a mixed system of Social Security pension benefits with different combinations of pay-as-you-go taxes and personal retirement account (PRA) saving. The analysis shows how these risks can be reduced by using alternative private market guarantee strategies. The first such strategy uses a blend of equities and TIPS to guarantee at least a positive real rate or return on each year's PRA saving. The second is an explicit zero-cost collar that guarantees an annual rate of return by giving up all returns above a certain level. One variant of these guarantees uses a two stage procedure: a guaranteed return to age 66 and then a separate guarantee on the implicit return in the annuity phase. An alternative strategy provides a combined guarantee on the return during both the accumulation and the annuity phase. Simulations are presented of the probability distributions of retirement incomes relative to the "benchmark" benefits specified in current law. Calculations of expected utility show that these risk reduction techniques can raise expected utility relative to the plans with no guarantees. The ability to do so depends on the individual's risk aversion level. This underlines the idea that different individuals would rationally prefer different investment strategies and risk reduction options.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Feldstein, 2009. "Reducing the Risk of Investment-Based Social Security Reform," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 201-218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:4545
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diamond, Peter A., 2002. "Social Security Reform," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199247899.
    2. Martin Feldstein & Elena Ranguelova & Andrew Samwick, 2001. "The Transition to Investment-Based Social Security When Portfolio Returns and Capital Profitability Are Uncertain," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 41-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Martin Feldstein, 2001. "Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number camp01-1.
    4. Peter A. Diamond, 2000. "Administrative Costs and Equilibrium Charges with Individual Accounts," NBER Chapters, in: Administrative Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 137-172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. John Y. Campbell & Martin Feldstein, 2001. "Introduction to "Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform"," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 1-10, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. John B. Shoven, 2000. "Introduction to "Administrative Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform"," NBER Chapters, in: Administrative Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 1-8, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Horneff, Vanya & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Rogalla, Ralph, 2015. "Optimal life cycle portfolio choice with variable annuities offering liquidity and investment downside protection," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 91-107.
    2. Marie‐Eve Lachance & Olivia S. Mitchell & Kent Smetters, 2003. "Guaranteeing Defined Contribution Pensions: The Option to Buy Back a Defined Benefit Promise," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 1-16, March.
    3. James M. Poterba & Joshua Rauh & Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 2009. "Reducing Social Security PRA Risk at the Individual Level: Life-Cycle Funds and No-Loss Strategies," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 255-292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Martin Feldstein, 2005. "Structural Reform of Social Security," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 33-55, Spring.
    5. L.J. Basson & Sune Ferreira-Schenk & Zandri Dickason-Koekemoer, 2022. "Fractal Dimension Option Hedging Strategy Implementation During Turbulent Market Conditions in Developing and Developed Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 84-95, March.
    6. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2014. "The Life and Work Of Martin Stuart (“Marty”) Feldstein," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201410, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    7. Stavros Panageas, 2007. "Optimal Retirement Benefit Guarantees," 2007 Meeting Papers 172, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. James M. Poterba & Joshua Rauh & Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 2009. "Lifecycle Asset Allocation Strategies and the Distribution of 401(k) Retirement Wealth," NBER Chapters, in: Developments in the Economics of Aging, pages 15-50, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Miles, David & Cerny, Ales, 2001. "Risk Return and Portfolio Allocation under Alternative Pension Systems with Imperfect Financial Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Olivia S. Mitchell & Alexander Muermann, 2003. "The Demand for Guarantees in Social Security Personal Retirement Accounts," Working Papers wp060, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    11. George G. Pennacchi, 2009. "Comment on "Pricing Personal Account Benefit Guarantees: A Simplified Approach"," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 249-254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

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