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Global Impact of a Protectionist U.S. Trade Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Felbermayr
  • Marina Steininger
  • Erdal Yalcin
Abstract
When President Trump came into office the US administration launched a detailed analysis of American trade relations. It aimed to identify "unfair trade practices" that are supposedly increasingly being used by other countries, and that are economically damaging to America. This study simulates potential protectionist trade policies on the part of the USA using historical data. The results enable a comprehensive analysis of the political debate and, above all, of its meaningfulness. The study illustrates that the USA does actually face economic imbalances, and especially high trade deficits, which are increasingly causing upsets in individual branches within the States. At the same time, however, the study also makes it clear that the solution to such economic challenges does not lie in a protectionist trade policy. On the contrary, such a policy would only exacerbate problems in the long term. The study ends with a policy recommendation for the USA and the functioning, rule-based, multilateral trade system.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr & Marina Steininger & Erdal Yalcin, 2017. "Global Impact of a Protectionist U.S. Trade Policy," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 89.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifofob:89
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jung, Benjamin, 2012. "Gradualism and dynamic trade adjustment: Revisiting the pro-trade effect of free trade agreements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 63-66.
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    6. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2014. "Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP," CESifo Working Paper Series 5150, CESifo.
    7. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Jung, Benjamin & Larch, Mario, 2013. "Optimal tariffs, retaliation, and the welfare loss from tariff wars in the Melitz model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 13-25.
    8. Gabriel Felbermayr & Rahel Aichele & Inga Heiland, 2016. "Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP Revised," ifo Working Paper Series 219, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    9. Dai, Mian & Yotov, Yoto & Zylkin, Thomas, 2013. "On the Trade-diversion Effects of Free Trade Agreements," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2013-3, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, revised 15 Sep 2014.
    10. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
    11. Caroline Freund & Joseph E. Gagnon, 2017. "Effects of Consumption Taxes on Real Exchange Rates and Trade Balances," Working Paper Series WP17-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819, February.
    2. Walter, Timo, 2018. "Trade and welfare effects of a potential free trade agreement between Japan and the United States," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 16-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    3. Raphael A. Auer & Barthélémy Bonadio & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2020. "The Economics and Politics of Revoking NAFTA," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 230-267, March.
    4. Erdal Yalcin & Marina Steininger, 2018. "Weltweite ökonomische Folgen einer zunehmend protektionistischen US-Handelspolitik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(04), pages 30-38, February.
    5. repec:wsr:pbrief:y:2021:i:053 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kroll, Henning & Berghäuser, Hendrik & Blind, Knut & Neuhäusler, Peter & Scheifele, Fabian & Thielmann, Axel & Wydra, Sven, 2022. "Schlüsseltechnologien," Studien zum deutschen Innovationssystem 7-2022, Expertenkommission Forschung und Innovation (EFI) - Commission of Experts for Research and Innovation, Berlin.
    7. Li, Chunding & Whalley, John, 2021. "Trade protectionism and US manufacturing employment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 353-361.
    8. Raphael Auer & Barthélémy Bonadio & Andrei A Levchenko, 2018. "The economics of revoking NAFTA," BIS Working Papers 739, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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