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Recollection Bias and the Combat of Terrorism

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  • W. Kip Viscusi
  • Richard J. Zeckhauser
Abstract
Survey respondents assessed the risks of terrorist attacks and their consequences and were asked how their assessments changed from before September 11 to the present. This paper analyzes those current and recollected risk assessments. More than half of the respondents exhibited what we label “recollection bias”: looking backward from 2002, 2003, or 2004, they reported that their forward-looking risk assessments did not rise after September 11. However, government expenditures and policies and evidence from insurance markets suggest that there were major risk increases in estimated risks. Respondents were generally willing to support airplane passenger profiling when the time costs of alternative policies were great and were supportive of strengthened surveillance policies to address terrorism risks as well. However, individuals suffering from recollection bias are less supportive. We label as “recollection choice bias” a link between policy choices and recollection bias.

Suggested Citation

  • W. Kip Viscusi & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 2005. "Recollection Bias and the Combat of Terrorism," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 27-55, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlstud:v:34:y:2005:p:27-55
    DOI: 10.1086/427461
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kelman, Mark & Fallas, David E & Folger, Hilary, 1998. "Decomposing Hindsight Bias," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 251-269, July-Aug..
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    6. Doherty, Neil A & Lamm-Tennant, Joan & Starks, Laura T, 2003. "Insuring September 11th: Market Recovery and Transparency," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 179-199, March-May.
    7. Sunstein, Cass R, 2003. "Terrorism and Probability Neglect," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 121-136, March-May.
    8. Cummins, J David & Lewis, Christopher M, 2003. "Catastrophic Events, Parameter Uncertainty and the Breakdown of Implicit Long-Term Contracting: The Case of Terrorism Insurance," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 153-178, March-May.
    9. Viscusi, W Kip & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 2003. "Sacrificing Civil Liberties to Reduce Terrorism Risks," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 99-120, March-May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brunet, Alexia, 2005. "Protecting Our Homeland: Incorporating Vulnerability to Terrorism in State Homeland Security Grants," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19380, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. W. Kip Viscusi & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 2017. "Recollection Bias and Its Underpinnings: Lessons from Terrorism Risk Assessments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(5), pages 969-981, May.
    3. Zeckhauser Richard, 2006. "Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-41, September.
    4. Kenneth D. Nguyen & Heather Rosoff & Richard S. John, 2017. "Valuing Equal Protection in Aviation Security Screening," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(12), pages 2405-2419, December.
    5. Bruno S. Frey, 2008. "Terrorism and business," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(2), pages 172-183.
    6. Tim Krieger, 2011. "9/11's Legacy: How Abstract Fear and Collective Memory Lead to Real Economic Costs," Working Papers CIE 45, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    7. W. Kip Viscusi, 2015. "The heterogeneity of the value of statistical life: evidence and policy implications," Chapters, in: Carol Mansfield & V. K. Smith (ed.), Benefit–Cost Analyses for Security Policies, chapter 4, pages 78-116, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Gordon L. Clark & Emiko Caerlewy‐Smith & John C. Marshall, 2009. "Solutions to the Asset Allocation Problem by Informed Respondents: The Significance of the Size‐of‐Bet and the 1/N Heuristic," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 251-271, September.
    9. Alm, James & McKee, Michael, 2006. "Audit Certainty, Audit Productivity, and Taxpayer Compliance," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 59(4), pages 801-816, December.
    10. W. Kip Viscusi, 2021. "Economic lessons for COVID‐19 pandemic policies," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(4), pages 1064-1089, April.
    11. Eric Andrew Finkelstein & Carol Mansfield & Dallas Wood & Brent Rowe & Junxing Chay & Semra Ozdemir, 2017. "Trade-Offs Between Civil Liberties And National Security: A Discrete Choice Experiment," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 292-311, April.
    12. Thomann, Christian & Pascalau, Razvan & Schulenburg, J.-Matthias Graf von der & Gas, Bruno, 2007. "Corporate Management of Highly Dynamic Risks: The Case of Terrorism Insurance in Germany," MPRA Paper 7221, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Xinsheng Liu & Kent E. Portney & Jeryl L. Mumpower & Arnold Vedlitz, 2019. "Terrorism Risk Assessment, Recollection Bias, and Public Support for Counterterrorism Policy and Spending," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(3), pages 553-570, March.

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