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The African Political Business Cycle: Varieties of Experience

Author

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  • Paul Mosley
  • Blessing Chiripanhura
Abstract
We seek to understand both the incidence and the impact of the African political business cycle in the light of a literature which has argued that, with major extensions of democracy since the 1990s, the cycle has both become more intense and has made African political systems more fragile. With the help of country case studies, we argue, first, that the African political business cycle is not homogeneous, and occurs relatively infrequently in so-called ‘dominant-party systems’ where a pre-election stimulus confers little political advantage. Secondly, we show that, in those countries where a political cycle does occur, it does not necessarily cause institutional damage. Whether it does or not depends not so much on whether there is an electoral cycle as on whether this cycle calms or exacerbates fears of an unjust allocation of resources. In other words, the composition of the pre-election stimulus, in terms of its allocation between different categories of voter, is as important as its size.

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  • Paul Mosley & Blessing Chiripanhura, 2016. "The African Political Business Cycle: Varieties of Experience," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(7), pages 917-932, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:52:y:2016:i:7:p:917-932
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2015.1113263
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    as


    Cited by:

    1. Blessing Chiripanhura & Miguel Niño‐Zarazúa, 2015. "Aid, Political Business Cycles and Growth in Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(8), pages 1387-1421, November.
    2. Ofori-Sasu, Daniel & Agbloyor, Elikplimi Komla & Nsafoah, Dennis & Asongu, Simplice A., 2024. "Banking behaviour and political business cycle in Africa: The role of independent regulatory policies of the central bank," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    3. Blessing Chiripanhura & Miguel Niño‐Zarazúa, 2015. "Aid, Political Business Cycles and Growth in Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(8), pages 1387-1421, November.
    4. Antoine CAZALS & Pierre MANDON, 2016. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers 201609, CERDI.
    5. Abdul Ganiyu Iddrisu, 2023. "Election cycles and corruption perception in Africa," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 553-571, December.
    6. Christine Strong, 2024. "What type of central banker dampens the political business cycle? The case of Africa," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1920-1946, April.
    7. Resnick, Danielle, 2019. "Strong democracy, weak state: The political economy of Ghana’s stalled structural transformation," IFPRI book chapters, in: Ghana’s economic and agricultural transformation: Past performance and future prospects, chapter 3, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Abdul-Gafaru Abdulai & Giles Mohan, 2019. "The politics of bureaucratic ‘pockets of effectiveness’ - Insights from Ghana’s Ministry of Finance," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series esid-119-19, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    9. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2015. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation of Leaders or Bias from Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis," CERDI Working papers halshs-01238883, HAL.
    10. Christine Olivia, 2023. "Tying One’s Hand: The Effect of Fiscal Rules on the Political Business Cycle in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 32(4), pages 438-467.
    11. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2015. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation of Leaders or Bias from Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers halshs-01238883, HAL.
    12. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2016. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers halshs-01320586, HAL.
    13. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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