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Fiscal volatility, financial crises and growth

Author

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  • António Afonso
  • João Tovar Jalles
Abstract
We use a panel of developed and emerging countries for the period 1970 to 2008 to assess how fiscal policy volatility and financial crises affect growth. We find that economic growth is lower in the presence of more volatile fiscal policy. Moreover, with a financial crisis government spending is stickier than revenue.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Fiscal volatility, financial crises and growth," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(18), pages 1821-1826, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:19:y:2012:i:18:p:1821-1826
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2012.667531
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 2010/146, International Monetary Fund.
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    5. Charles I. Plosser, 1992. "The search for growth," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 57-86.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Antonio Afonso & Jose Alves, 2015. "The Role of Government Debt in Economic Growth," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 9-26, December.
    3. Sinem Kilic Celik & M.Ayhan Kose & Franziska L. Ohnsorge, 2020. "Subdued potential growth: Sources and remedies," CAMA Working Papers 2020-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Tax reform and public debt instability in developing countries: The trade openness and public revenue instability channels," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 54-67.
    5. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Growth and productivity: The role of government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 384-407.
    6. Abdulaziz H. Algaeed, 2022. "Government Spending Volatility and Real Economic Growth: Evidence From a Major Oil Producing Country, Saudi Arabia, 1970 to 2018," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    7. Zuzana Machová & Igor Kotlán, 2015. "Právní jistota - možný problém daňové politiky vyspělých zemí? [Legal Certainty - Possible Problem of Tax Policy in Developed Countries?]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(7), pages 833-846.
    8. M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2023. "Slowing Growth: More Than a Rough Patch," CAMA Working Papers 2023-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Muhsin Ali & Karim Khan, 2020. "Volatility in Discretionary Public Spending and Economic Growth: A Cross Country Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 45-68.
    10. Mara, Eugenia-Ramona, 2012. "Determinants of fiscal budget volatility in old versus new EU member states," MPRA Paper 42555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. António Afonso & M. Carmen Blanco-Arana, 2024. "The Role of Fiscal Policy Rating Variables on Economic Growth in the LDCs," CESifo Working Paper Series 11208, CESifo.
    12. Narayan, Laxmi, 2017. "Growth of Public Debt in Haryana – Dynamism or Misplaced Priorities," MPRA Paper 79431, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 May 2017.
    13. Menescal, Lucas & Alves, José, 2024. "Optimal threshold taxation: An empirical investigation for developing economies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    14. Panagodage Janaka Sampath Fernando & Hasthimuni Nadeeka De Silva & Athula Naranpanawa & Chandika Gunasinghe, 2017. "Revisiting the debt-growth nexus: Empirical evidence from Sri Lanka," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201706, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    15. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Productive capacities, structural economic vulnerability and fiscal space volatility in developing countries," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 45(3), pages 25-48.
    16. Silvapulle, Param & Fenech, Jean Pierre & Thomas, Alice & Brooks, Rob, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads and contagion in the peripheral EU countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 83-92.
    17. Adnan Efendic & Naida Trkic-Izmirlija, 2013. "Effects of the global economic crisis and public spending on income distribution in Bosnia and Herzegovina," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 108, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    18. Shahrzad Ghourchian & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2020. "Government consumption, government debt and economic growth," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 589-605, May.
    19. Li Liu & Yu-Min Liu & Jong-Min Kim & Rui Zhong & Guang-Qian Ren, 2020. "Analysis of Tail Dependence between Sovereign Debt Distress and Bank Non-Performing Loans," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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