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Bai and Perron's and spectral density methods for structural change detection in the US inflation process

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  • Mohamed Safouane Ben Aissa
  • Mohamed Boutahar
  • Jamel Jouini
Abstract
This paper addresses the issue of estimating the number of breaks and their locations in the monthly US inflation series using two different approaches to testing for structural changes. The first approach considers Bai and Perron's selection procedure based on a sequence of tests. This approach focuses on the instability problem in time. The second method uses a test similar to the one based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics applied to the evolutionary spectrum. The results obtained are similar and economically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Safouane Ben Aissa & Mohamed Boutahar & Jamel Jouini, 2004. "Bai and Perron's and spectral density methods for structural change detection in the US inflation process," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 109-115.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:11:y:2004:i:2:p:109-115
    DOI: 10.1080/1350485042000200213
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-285, March.
    3. Ahamada, Ibrahim, 2002. "Tests for covariance stationarity and white noise, with an application to Euro/US dollar exchange rate: An approach based on the evolutionary spectral density," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 177-186, October.
    4. Artis, Michael J & Bladen-Hovell, Robin & Nachane, Dilip M, 1992. "Instability of the Velocity of Money: A New Approach Based on the Evolutionary Spectrum," CEPR Discussion Papers 735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    6. Ahamada, Ibrahim & Boutahar, Mohamed, 2003. "Erratum to "Tests for covariance stationarity and white noise, with an application to Euro/US dollar exchange rate: An approach based on the evolutionary spectral density" [Economics Letters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 293-293, February.
    7. Mohamed Safouane Ben Aissa & Jamel Jouini, 2003. "Structural breaks in the US inflation process," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(10), pages 633-636.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Jamel Jouini, 2009. "Analysis of structural break models based on the evolutionary spectrum: Monte Carlo study and application," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 91-110.
    2. Manai Daboussi, Olfa, 2014. "Inflation Targeting As a Monetary Policy Rule: Experience and Prospects," MPRA Paper 59336, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Oct 2014.
    3. Essahbi Essaadi & Mohamed Boutahar, 2010. "A Measure of Variability in Comovement for Economic Variables: a Time-Varying Coherence Function Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1054-1070.
    4. Ibrahim Ahamada & Jamel Jouini & Mohamed Boutahar, 2004. "Detecting multiple breaks in time series covariance structure: a non-parametric approach based on the evolutionary spectral density," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1095-1101.
    5. Cortuk, Orcan & Singh, Nirvikar, 2011. "Structural change and growth in India," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 178-181, March.
    6. Ahdi Ajmi & Adnen Ben Nasr & Mohamed Boutahar, 2008. "Seasonal Nonlinear Long Memory Model for the US Inflation Rates," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 243-254, April.
    7. Jamel Jouini, 2006. "Bootstrap Tests in Bivariate VAR Process with Single Structural Change : Power versus Corrected Size and Empirical Illustration," Working Papers halshs-00410759, HAL.
    8. Ibrahim Ahamada & Jamel Jouini & Mohamed Boutahar, 2004. "Detecting multiple breaks in time series covariance structure: a non-parametric approach based on the evolutionary spectral density," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1095-1101.
    9. Russell, Bill, 2011. "Non-stationary inflation and panel estimates of United States short and long-run Phillips curves," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 406-419, September.
    10. Strikholm, Birgit, 2006. "Determining the number of breaks in a piecewise linear regression model," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 648, Stockholm School of Economics.
    11. Jeddy, Mohamed & Larue, Bruno, 2012. "Mergers, concurrent marketing mechanisms and the performance of sequential auctions," Working Papers 126945, Structure and Performance of Agriculture and Agri-products Industry (SPAA).
    12. Olfa Manai Daboussi, 2016. "Enhanced Economic Stability and the Role of Inflation Targeting Policy: Empirical Study on Case of Developing Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(6), pages 352-362, June.
    13. Mohamed Boutahar & Jamel Jouini, 2007. "A Methodology For Detecting Breaks In The Mean And Covariance Structure Of Time Series," Working Papers halshs-00354249, HAL.
    14. Jouini, Jamel & Boutahar, Mohamed, 2005. "Evidence on structural changes in U.S. time series," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 391-422, May.
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