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Bracing for the Typhoon: Climate change and sovereign risk in Southeast Asia

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  • John Beirne
  • Nuobu Renzhi
  • Ulrich Volz
Abstract
This article investigates and empirically tests the link between climate change and sovereign risk in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian countries are among those most heavily affected by climate change. The number and intensity of extreme weather events in the region have been increasing markedly, causing severe social and economic damage. Southeast Asian economies are also exposed to gradual effects of global warming as well as transition risks stemming from policies aimed at mitigating climate change. To empirically examine the effect of climate change on the sovereign risk of Southeast Asian countries, we employ indices for vulnerability and resilience to climate change and estimate country‐specific OLS models for six countries and a fixed effects panel using monthly data for the period 2002–2018. Both the country‐specific and the panel results show that greater climate vulnerability appears to have a sizable positive effect on sovereign bond yields, while greater resilience to climate change has an offsetting effect, albeit to a lesser extent. A higher cost of debt holds back much‐needed investment in public infrastructure and climate adaptation, increases the risk of debt sustainability problems, and diminishes the development prospects of Southeast Asian countries.

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  • John Beirne & Nuobu Renzhi & Ulrich Volz, 2021. "Bracing for the Typhoon: Climate change and sovereign risk in Southeast Asia," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 537-551, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:sustdv:v:29:y:2021:i:3:p:537-551
    DOI: 10.1002/sd.2199
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    Cited by:

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    2. Naifar, Nader, 2024. "Spillover among Sovereign Credit Risk and the Role of Climate Uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    3. Paul Bertheau & Robert Lindner, 2022. "Financing sustainable development? The role of foreign aid in Southeast Asia's energy transition," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 96-109, February.
    4. Agarwala, Matthew & Burke, Matt & Klusak, Patrycja & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Volz, Ulrich & Zenghelis, Dimitri, 2021. "Climate Change And Fiscal Sustainability: Risks And Opportunities," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 258, pages 28-46, November.
    5. Jiang, Yong & Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Ma, Chao-Qun & Yang, Xiao-Guang, 2024. "Tail connectedness between category-specific policy uncertainty, sovereign debt risk, and stock volatility during a high inflation period," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    6. Teodora Cristina Barbu & Cosmin-Octavian Cepoi & Crina Raluca Petrescu & Mariana Vuta, 2022. "The Assessment of Climate Risk Impact on the Economy: A Panel Data Approach," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 24(61), pages 597-597, August.
    7. Andreas Antoniades & Alexander S. Antonarakis & Jonathan Gilman & Isabell Kempf & Anne Juepner & Kerstin Stendahl, 2021. "Special issue: The poverty‐inequality‐environment frontier in the age of crises," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 481-484, May.
    8. Matthew Agarwala & Matt Burke & Patrycja Klusak & Kamiar Mohaddes & Ulrich Volz & Dimitri Zenghelis, 2021. "Climate Change and Fiscal Responsibility: Risks and Opportunities," Working Papers 008, The Productivity Institute.
    9. Agarwala, Matthew & Burke, Matt & Klusak, Patrycja & Kraemer, Moritz & Volz, Ulrich, 2024. "Nature loss and sovereign credit ratings," Accountancy, Economics, and Finance Working Papers 2024-09, Heriot-Watt University, Department of Accountancy, Economics, and Finance.
    10. Li, Xing & Zhou, Yanli & Zhu, Dixing & Ge, Xiangyu, 2024. "Research on effect of extreme climates penalties local government debt pricing: Evidence from urban investment bonds in China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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