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Recent Case Studies and Advancements in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

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  • B. John Garrick
Abstract
During the period from 1977 to 1984, Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc., had the lead in preparing several full scope probabilistic risk assessments for electric utilities. Five of those studies are discussed from the point of view of advancements and lessons learned. The objective and trend of these studies is toward utilization of the risk models by the plant owners as risk management tools. Advancements that have been made are in presentation and documentation of the PRAs, generation of more understandable plant level information, and improvements in methodology to facilitate technology transfer. Specific areas of advancement are in the treatment of such issues as dependent failures, human interaction, and the uncertainty in the source term. Lessons learned cover a wide spectrum and include the importance of plant specific models for meaningful risk management, the role of external events in risk, the sensitivity of contributors to choice of risk index, and the very important finding that the public risk is extremely small. The future direction of PRA is to establish less dependence on experts for in‐plant application. Computerizing the PRAs such that they can be accessed on line and interactively is the key.

Suggested Citation

  • B. John Garrick, 1984. "Recent Case Studies and Advancements in Probabilistic Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(4), pages 267-279, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:4:y:1984:i:4:p:267-279
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00946.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Aven, Terje, 2020. "Three influential risk foundation papers from the 80s and 90s: Are they still state-of-the-art?," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    2. Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell, 2002. "Finding and Fixing Systems Weaknesses: Probabilistic Methods and Applications of Engineering Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(2), pages 319-334, April.
    3. Michael Greenberg & Charles Haas & Anthony Cox & Karen Lowrie & Katherine McComas & Warner North, 2012. "Ten Most Important Accomplishments in Risk Analysis, 1980–2010," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(5), pages 771-781, May.
    4. Robin L. Dillon & M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell & Seth D. Guikema, 2003. "Programmatic Risk Analysis for Critical Engineering Systems Under Tight Resource Constraints," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(3), pages 354-370, June.
    5. Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell, 2002. "Risk and Uncertainty Analysis in Government Safety Decisions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 633-646, June.
    6. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. Rene van Dorp & Jack Harrald & Thomas Mazzuchi & John E. Spahn & Martha Grabowski, 2000. "A systems approach to managing oil transportation risk in Prince William Sound," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3), pages 128-142.
    7. Michael Greenberg, 2011. "Risk analysis and port security: some contextual observations and considerations," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 121-136, July.
    8. Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell, 2002. "Fusion of Intelligence Information: A Bayesian Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 445-454, June.
    9. M. Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell, 1993. "Learning from the Piper Alpha Accident: A Postmortem Analysis of Technical and Organizational Factors," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(2), pages 215-232, April.
    10. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. René van Dorp & Thomas Mazzuchi & John R. Harrald & John E. Spahn & Martha Grabowski, 2002. "The Prince William Sound Risk Assessment," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 25-40, December.
    11. Jason R. W. Merrick & Martha Grabowski & Premnath Ayyalasomayajula & John R. Harrald, 2005. "Understanding Organizational Safety Using Value‐Focused Thinking," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(4), pages 1029-1041, August.
    12. Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell, 2012. "On “Black Swans” and “Perfect Storms”: Risk Analysis and Management When Statistics Are Not Enough," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(11), pages 1823-1833, November.

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