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Dependency of Crop Production between Global Breadbaskets: A Copula Approach for the Assessment of Global and Regional Risk Pools

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  • Franziska Gaupp
  • Georg Pflug
  • Stefan Hochrainer‐Stigler
  • Jim Hall
  • Simon Dadson
Abstract
As recent events have shown, simultaneous crop losses in different parts of the world can cause serious risks to global food security. However, to date, little is known about the spatial dependency of lower than expected crop yields from global breadbaskets. This especially applies in the case of extreme events, i.e., where one or more breadbaskets are experiencing far below average yields. Without such information, risk management approaches cannot be applied and vulnerability to extremes may remain high or even increase in the future around the world. We tackle both issues from an empirical perspective focusing on wheat yield. Interdependencies between historically observed wheat yield deviations in five breadbaskets (United States, Argentina, India, China, and Australia) are estimated via copula approaches that can incorporate increasing tail dependencies. In doing so, we are able to attach probabilities to interregional as well as global yield losses. To address the robustness of our results, we apply three different methods for constructing multivariate copulas: vine copulas, ordered coupling using a minimax approach, and hierarchical structuring. We found interdependencies between states within breadbaskets that led us to the conclusion that risk pooling for extremes is less favorable on the regional level. However, notwithstanding evidence of global climatic teleconnections that may influence crop production, we also demonstrate empirically that wheat production losses are independent between global breadbaskets, which strengthens the case for interregional risk pooling strategies. We argue that through interregional risk pooling, postdisaster liabilities of governments and international donors could be decreased.

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  • Franziska Gaupp & Georg Pflug & Stefan Hochrainer‐Stigler & Jim Hall & Simon Dadson, 2017. "Dependency of Crop Production between Global Breadbaskets: A Copula Approach for the Assessment of Global and Regional Risk Pools," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(11), pages 2212-2228, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:37:y:2017:i:11:p:2212-2228
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12761
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cao, Juan & Zhang, Zhao & Tao, Fulu & Chen, Yi & Luo, Xiangzhong & Xie, Jun, 2023. "Forecasting global crop yields based on El Nino Southern Oscillation early signals," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    2. Dimitrios Panagiotou & Athanassios Stavrakoudis, 2023. "Price dependence among the major EU extra virgin olive oil markets: a time scale analysis," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 1-26, March.
    3. Asjad Naqvi & Franziska Gaupp & Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, 2020. "The risk and consequences of multiple breadbasket failures: an integrated copula and multilayer agent-based modeling approach," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 42(3), pages 727-754, September.
    4. E. Allevi & L. Boffino & M. E. Giuli & G. Oggioni, 2019. "Analysis of long-term natural gas contracts with vine copulas in optimization portfolio problems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 274(1), pages 1-37, March.
    5. Panagiotpu, Dimitrios & Stavrakoudis, Athanassios, 2021. "Price dependence among the major EU extra virgin olive oil markets: A time scale analysis," MPRA Paper 114656, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2022.
    6. Xinru Miao & Shaopeng Wang & Jiqin Han & Zhaoyi Ren & Teng Ma & Henglang Xie, 2024. "The Regional Heterogeneity of the Impact of Agricultural Market Integration on Regional Economic Development: An Analysis of Pre-COVID-19 Data in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-33, February.
    7. Mubenga-Tshitaka, Jean-Luc & Muteba Mwamba, John W. & Dikgang, Johane & Gelo, Dambala, 2021. "Risk spillover between climate variables and the agricultural commodity market in East Africa," EconStor Preprints 243160, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Kai Kornhuber & Corey Lesk & Carl F. Schleussner & Jonas Jägermeyr & Peter Pfleiderer & Radley M. Horton, 2023. "Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Wang, Zhonglai & Liu, Jing & Yu, Shui, 2020. "Time-variant reliability prediction for dynamic systems using partial information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).

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