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Nominal GDP Targeting and the Taylor Rule on an Even Playing Field

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  • DAVID BECKWORTH
  • JOSHUA R. HENDRICKSON
Abstract
Some economists advocate nominal GDP targeting as an alternative to the Taylor Rule. These arguments are largely based on the idea that nominal GDP targeting would require less knowledge on the part of policymakers than a traditional Taylor Rule. In particular, a nominal GDP targeting rule would not require real‐time knowledge of the output gap. We examine the importance of this claim by amending a standard New Keynesian model to assume that the central bank has imperfect information about the output gap and therefore must forecast the output gap based on previous information. Forecast errors by the central bank can then potentially induce unanticipated changes in the short‐term nominal interest rate, distinct from a standard monetary policy shock. We show that forecast errors of the output gap by the Federal Reserve can account for up to 13% of the fluctuations in the output gap. In addition, our simulations imply that a nominal GDP targeting rule would produce lower volatility in both inflation and the output gap in comparison with the Taylor Rule under imperfect information.

Suggested Citation

  • David Beckworth & Joshua R. Hendrickson, 2020. "Nominal GDP Targeting and the Taylor Rule on an Even Playing Field," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 269-286, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:52:y:2020:i:1:p:269-286
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12602
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    2. Fackler, James S. & McMillin, W. Douglas, 2020. "Nominal GDP versus price level targeting: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. David Beckworth, 2017. "The monetary policy origins of the eurozone crisis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 114-134, June.
    4. Benchimol, Jonathan, 2024. "Central bank objectives, monetary policy rules, and limited information," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. John B. Taylor, 2016. "Rethinking the International Monetary System," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 239-250, Spring/Su.
    6. Ibrahima Amadou Diallo, 2019. "A Bayesian DSGE Model Comparison of the Taylor Rule and Nominal GDP Targeting," Working Papers hal-02281971, HAL.
    7. Ronald Mau, 2023. "What Is in a Name? Purchases and Sales of Financial Assets as a Monetary Policy Instrument," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1507-1533, September.
    8. John B. Taylor, 2017. "Rules Versus Discretion: Assessing the Debate Over the Conduct of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 24149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Thomas L. Hogan & William J. Luther, 2020. "Suboptimal Equilibria from Nominal GDP Targeting," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 35(Summer 20), pages 61-76.
    10. Ortiz, Marco & Inca, Arthur & Solf, Fabrizio, 2024. "Welfare implications of nomimal GDP targeting in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 119999, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Nicolás Cachanosky, 2021. "Microfoundations and macroeconomics: 20 years," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 279-288, June.
    12. Nicolás Cachanosky, 0. "Microfoundations and macroeconomics: 20 years," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 0, pages 1-10.
    13. Jackson Mejia & Brian C. Albrecht, 2022. "On price stability with a job guarantee," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 568-584, October.
    14. Chen, Haixia & Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2023. "UK Monetary Policy in An Estimated DSGE Model with State-Dependent Price and Wage Contracts," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    15. Salem Abo‐Zaid & Huiying Chen & Ahmed Kamara, 2021. "A fiscal perspective on nominal GDP targeting," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1641-1660, October.

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