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The Macro Impact of Short‐Termism

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  • Stephen J. Terry
Abstract
R&D investment reduces current profits, so short‐term pressure to hit profit targets may distort R&D. In the data, firms just meeting Wall Street forecasts have lower R&D growth and subsequent innovation, while managers just missing receive lower pay. But short‐termist distortions might not quantitatively matter if aggregation or equilibrium dampen their impact. So I build and estimate a quantitative endogenous growth model in which short‐termism arises naturally as discipline on conflicted managers and boosts firm value by about 1%. But short‐termism reduces R&D, and the social return to R&D is higher than the private return due to standard channels including knowledge spillovers and imperfect competition. So at the macro level, short‐termist distortions slow growth by 5 basis points yearly and lower social welfare by about 1%.

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  • Stephen J. Terry, 2023. "The Macro Impact of Short‐Termism," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(5), pages 1881-1912, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:91:y:2023:i:5:p:1881-1912
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA15420
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Terry & Anastasia Zakolyukina & Toni Whited, 2018. "Information Distortion, R&D, and Growth," 2018 Meeting Papers 217, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Stephen J. Terry & Toni M. Whited & Anastasia A. Zakolyukina, 2020. "Information versus Investment," Working Papers 2020-110, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    3. Pinchetti, Marco, 2020. "What Is Driving The TFP Slowdown? Insights From a Schumpeterian DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 98316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Christine L. Exley & Stephen J. Terry, 2019. "Wage Elasticities in Working and Volunteering: The Role of Reference Points in a Laboratory Study," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 413-425, January.
    5. Fromenteau, Philippe & Schymik, Jan & Tscheke, Jan, 2016. "Import Competition and the Composition of Firm Investments," Discussion Papers in Economics 29654, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    6. Miettinen, Topi & Stenbacka, Rune, 2018. "Strategic short-termism: Implications for the management and acquisition of customer relationships," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 200-222.

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