[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/19-448.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Empirical Equilibrium Model of Formal and Informal Credit Markets in Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Fan Wang

    (University of Houston)

Abstract
I develop and estimate a dynamic equilibrium model of risky entrepreneurs' borrowing and savings decisions incorporating both formal and local-informal credit markets. Households have access to an exogenous formal credit market and to an informal credit market in which the interest rate is endogenously determined by the local demand and supply of credit. I estimate the model via Simulated Maximum Likelihood using Thai village data during an episode of formal credit market expansion. My estimates suggest that a 49 percent reduction in fixed costs increased the proportion of households borrowing formally by 36 percent, and that a doubling of the collateralized borrowing limits lowered informal interest rates by 24 percent. I find that more productive households benefited from the policies that expanded borrowing access, but less productive households lost in terms of welfare due to diminished savings opportunities. Gains are overall smaller than would be predicted by models that do not consider the informal credit market. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Fan Wang, 2022. "An Empirical Equilibrium Model of Formal and Informal Credit Markets in Developing Countries," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 224-243, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:19-448
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2021.09.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2021.09.001
    Download Restriction: Access to full texts is restricted to ScienceDirect subscribers and institutional members. See https://www.sciencedirect.com/ for details.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.red.2021.09.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pascaline Dupas & Dean Karlan & Jonathan Robinson & Diego Ubfal, 2018. "Banking the Unbanked? Evidence from Three Countries," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 257-297, April.
    2. Madestam, Andreas, 2014. "Informal finance: A theory of moneylenders," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 157-174.
    3. Robert M. Townsend & Kenichi Ueda, 2010. "Welfare Gains From Financial Liberalization," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(3), pages 553-597, August.
    4. Hoff, Karla & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1998. "Moneylenders and bankers: price-increasing subsidies in a monopolistically competitive market," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 485-518, April.
    5. Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Dan Bernhardt, 2000. "Enterprise, Inequality and Economic Development," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(1), pages 147-168.
    6. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo, 2014. "Do Firms Want to Borrow More? Testing Credit Constraints Using a Directed Lending Program," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(2), pages 572-607.
    7. Britta Augsburg & Ralph De Haas & Heike Harmgart & Costas Meghir, 2015. "The Impacts of Microcredit: Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 183-203, January.
    8. Townsend, Robert M, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 539-591, May.
    9. Gine, Xavier & Townsend, Robert M., 2004. "Evaluation of financial liberalization: a general equilibrium model with constrained occupation choice," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 269-307, August.
    10. Simone Schaner, 2018. "The Persistent Power of Behavioral Change: Long-Run Impacts of Temporary Savings Subsidies for the Poor," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 67-100, July.
    11. Christopher Udry, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in a Rural Credit Market: An Empirical Investigation in Northern Nigeria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(3), pages 495-526.
    12. Conning, Jonathan & Udry, Christopher, 2007. "Rural Financial Markets in Developing Countries," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: Robert Evenson & Prabhu Pingali (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 56, pages 2857-2908, Elsevier.
    13. Francisco J Buera & Joseph P Kaboski & Yongseok Shin, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Microfinance," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(1), pages 126-161.
    14. Alem, Mauro & Townsend, Robert M., 2014. "An evaluation of financial institutions: Impact on consumption and investment using panel data and the theory of risk-bearing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 91-103.
    15. Fatih Guvenen, 2011. "Macroeconomics with hetereogeneity : a practical guide," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 97(3Q), pages 255-326.
    16. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    17. Williamson, Stephen D., 1986. "Costly monitoring, financial intermediation, and equilibrium credit rationing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 159-179, September.
    18. Townsend, Robert M, 1983. "Financial Structure and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 895-911, December.
    19. Emily Breza & Cynthia Kinnan, 2021. "Measuring the Equilibrium Impacts of Credit: Evidence from the Indian Microfinance Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(3), pages 1447-1497.
    20. Granda, Catalina & Hamann, Franz & Tamayo, Cesar E., 2019. "Credit and saving constraints in general equilibrium: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 302-319.
    21. Keane, Michael P & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1997. "The Career Decisions of Young Men," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 473-522, June.
    22. Siamwalla, Ammar, et al, 1990. "The Thai Rural Credit System: Public Subsidies, Private Information, and Segmented Markets," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 4(3), pages 271-295, September.
    23. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rungruxsirivorn, Ornsiri, 2011. "Do Village Funds Improve Access to Finance? Evidence from Thailand," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 110-122, January.
    24. Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1076-1107, October.
    25. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555.
    26. Demont, Timothée, 2016. "Microfinance spillovers: A model of competition in informal credit markets with an application to Indian villages," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 21-41.
    27. Keane, Michael P & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1994. "The Solution and Estimation of Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Models by Simulation and Interpolation: Monte Carlo Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 648-672, November.
    28. Joseph P. Kaboski & Robert M. Townsend, 2012. "The Impact of Credit on Village Economies," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 98-133, April.
    29. Susumu Imai & Michael P. Keane, 2004. "Intertemporal Labor Supply and Human Capital Accumulation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 601-641, May.
    30. Dean S. Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2008. "Credit Elasticities in Less-Developed Economies: Implications for Microfinance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1040-1068, June.
    31. Maurer, Klaus & Khadka, Shyam & Seibel, Hans Dieter, 2000. "Agricultural Development Bank Reform: The Case of The Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC), Thailand," Working Papers 2000,3, University of Cologne, Development Research Center.
    32. Krueger, Dirk & Perri, Fabrizio, 2011. "Public versus private risk sharing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 920-956, May.
    33. Abhijit Banerjee & Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2015. "Six Randomized Evaluations of Microcredit: Introduction and Further Steps," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, January.
    34. Giné, Xavier, 2011. "Access to capital in rural Thailand: An estimated model of formal vs. informal credit," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 16-29, September.
    35. Attanasio, Orazio & Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor, 2000. "Consumption smoothing in island economies: Can public insurance reduce welfare?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1225-1258, June.
    36. Townsend, Robert M., 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 265-293, October.
    37. Alexander Karaivanov & Robert M. Townsend, 2014. "Dynamic Financial Constraints: Distinguishing Mechanism Design From Exogenously Incomplete Regimes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(3), pages 887-959, May.
    38. Becsi, Zsolt & Wang, Ping & Wynne, Mark A., 1999. "Costly intermediation, the big push and the big crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 275-293, August.
    39. Giulio Fella, 2014. "A generalized endogenous grid method for non-smooth and non-concave problems," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 329-344, April.
    40. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski & Yongseok Shin, 2015. "Entrepreneurship and Financial Frictions: A Macrodevelopment Perspective," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 409-436, August.
    41. Dehejia, Rajeev & Montgomery, Heather & Morduch, Jonathan, 2012. "Do interest rates matter? Credit demand in the Dhaka slums," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 437-449.
    42. Robin Burgess & Rohini Pande, 2005. "Do Rural Banks Matter? Evidence from the Indian Social Banking Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 780-795, June.
    43. Vincenzo Quadrini, 2009. "Entrepreneurship in macroeconomics," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 295-311, June.
    44. Mookherjee, D. & Motta, A., 2016. "A theory of interactions between MFIs and informal lenders," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 191-200.
    45. Hoff, Karla & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Imperfect Information and Rural Credit Markets--Puzzles and Policy Perspectives," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 4(3), pages 235-250, September.
    46. Maria Sagrario Floro & Debraj Ray, 1997. "Vertical Links Between Formal and Informal Financial Institutions," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 34-56, February.
    47. Juan C. Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1999. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 757-795, October.
    48. Timothy Besley, 1995. "Nonmarket Institutions for Credit and Risk Sharing in Low-Income Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 115-127, Summer.
    49. Boonperm, Jirawan & Haughton, Jonathan & Khandker, Shahidur R., 2013. "Does the Village Fund matter in Thailand? Evaluating the impact on incomes and spending," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 3-16.
    50. Bell, Clive & Srinivasan, T N & Udry, Christopher, 1997. "Rationing, Spillover, and Interlinking in Credit Markets: The Case of Rural Punjab," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 557-585, October.
    51. Pawasutipaisit, Anan & Townsend, Robert M., 2011. "Wealth accumulation and factors accounting for success," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(1), pages 56-81, March.
    52. Keane, Michael P & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 2001. "The Effect of Parental Transfers and Borrowing Constraints on Educational Attainment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1051-1103, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jeremy Greenwood & Juan Sanchez & Cheng Wang, 2013. "Quantifying the Impact of Financial Development on Economic Development," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 194-215, January.
    2. Di Giannatale, Sonia & Roa, María José, 2016. "Formal Saving in Developing Economies: Barriers, Interventions, and Effects," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8107, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Granda, Catalina & Hamann, Franz & Tamayo, Cesar E., 2019. "Credit and saving constraints in general equilibrium: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 302-319.
    4. Abhirupa Das & Uday Bhanu Sinha, 2022. "Microfinance institution and moneylenders in a segmented rural credit market," Working papers 324, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    5. Madiha MUNIR & Saira TUFAIL & Ather Maqsood AHMED, 2023. "Financial Segmentation and Transmission of Monetary and Real Shocks : Implications for Consumption, Labour, and Credit Distribution," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 101-119, October.
    6. Sonia Di Giannatale & María José Roa, 2016. "Formal Saving in Developing Economies: Barriers, Interventions, and Effects," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 97397, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Li, Huiyu, 2022. "Leverage and productivity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dabla-Norris, Era & Ji, Yan & Townsend, Robert M. & Filiz Unsal, D., 2021. "Distinguishing constraints on financial inclusion and their impact on GDP, TFP, and the distribution of income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-18.
    2. Hoffmann, Vivian & Rao, Vijayendra & Surendra, Vaishnavi & Datta, Upamanyu, 2021. "Relief from usury: Impact of a self-help group lending program in rural India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    3. Atul MEHTA & Joysankar BHATTACHARYA, 2018. "Financial sector development and the poor in developing countries: revisiting the access to finance channel," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(616), A), pages 153-168, Autumn.
    4. Tressel, Thierry, 2003. "Dual Financial Systems and Inequalities in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 223-257, June.
    5. Madestam, Andreas, 2014. "Informal finance: A theory of moneylenders," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 157-174.
    6. Giné, Xavier, 2011. "Access to capital in rural Thailand: An estimated model of formal vs. informal credit," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 16-29, September.
    7. Fonseca, Julia & Matray, Adrien, 2024. "Financial inclusion, economic development, and inequality: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    8. Ahlin, Christian & Gulesci, Selim & Madestam, Andreas & Stryjan, Miri, 2020. "Loan contract structure and adverse selection: Survey evidence from Uganda," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 180-195.
    9. Conning, Jonathan & Udry, Christopher, 2007. "Rural Financial Markets in Developing Countries," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: Robert Evenson & Prabhu Pingali (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 56, pages 2857-2908, Elsevier.
    10. Karaivanov, Alexander, 2012. "Financial constraints and occupational choice in Thai villages," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 201-220.
    11. Oriana Bandiera & Robin Burgess & Erika Deserranno & Ricardo Morel & Imran Rasul & Munshi Sulaiman & Jack Thiemel, 2022. "Microfinance and Diversification," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(S1), pages 239-275, June.
    12. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski & Yongseok Shin, 2015. "Entrepreneurship and Financial Frictions: A Macrodevelopment Perspective," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 409-436, August.
    13. Joseph P. Kaboski & Robert M. Townsend, 2011. "A Structural Evaluation of a Large‐Scale Quasi‐Experimental Microfinance Initiative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1357-1406, September.
    14. Karlan, Dean & Morduch, Jonathan, 2010. "Access to Finance," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4703-4784, Elsevier.
    15. Fulford, Scott L., 2013. "The effects of financial development in the short and long run: Theory and evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 56-72.
    16. Gine, Xavier, 2005. "Access to capital in rural Thailand : an estimated model of formal versus informal credit," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3502, The World Bank.
    17. Di Giannatale, Sonia & Roa, María José, 2016. "Formal Saving in Developing Economies: Barriers, Interventions, and Effects," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8107, Inter-American Development Bank.
    18. Julia Fonseca & Adrien Matray, 2022. "Financial Inclusion, Economic Development, and Inequality: Evidence from Brazil," Working Papers 308, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    19. Diego Vera-Cossio, 2022. "Targeting Credit through Community Members," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 778-821.
    20. Sugata Marjit & Pranab Kumar Das, 2024. "Sources of Finance and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 11446, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informal credit; Microfinance; Structural estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:issued:19-448. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.