[¿Cuáles son los principales factores que impulsan el déficit de cuenta corriente de los países MENA? Un análisis de enfoque de panel Logit]"> [¿Cuáles son los principales factores que impulsan el déficit de cuenta corriente de los países MENA? Un análisis de enfoque de panel Logit]">
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What are the main factors driving behind the MENA countries current account deficit? A panel logit approach analysis
[¿Cuáles son los principales factores que impulsan el déficit de cuenta corriente de los países MENA? Un análisis de enfoque de panel Logit]

Author

Listed:
  • Guellil, Mohammed Seghir

    (University of Mascara (Algeria))

  • Sari-Hassoun, Salah Eddine

    (University of Maghnia (Algeria))

  • Chica-Olmo, Jorge

    (University of Granada (Spain))

  • Saraç, Mehmet

    (Istanbul University (Turkey))

Abstract
The sustained current account deficit in any country has an important implication for policy. If it continues, then it suggests that the regime ought to have no motivation to avoid or to diminish its international debt. In this paper, we test empirically the relationship among current account deficit and different macroeconomic variables by using panel Logit model. Therefore, we focus on the MENA countries during the years of 1980-2017. We built an econometric model to analyse the contribution of the real GDP, unemployment rate (UR), consumer price index (CPI), export growth rate (EGR), import growth rate (IGR), public expenditures (PE), and foreign trade rate (FTR) on current account deficit (CAD). We established that only the following exogenous variables: GDP, UR, PE and FTR have a positive and significant effect on the current account deficit. This outcome may support governments to identify the best time for investment and business strategies by observing the evolution of the performance of higher temporal hierarchy industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Guellil, Mohammed Seghir & Sari-Hassoun, Salah Eddine & Chica-Olmo, Jorge & Saraç, Mehmet, 2022. "What are the main factors driving behind the MENA countries current account deficit? A panel logit approach analysis [¿Cuáles son los principales factores que impulsan el déficit de cuenta corrient," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 33(1), pages 134-153, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pab:rmcpee:v:33:y:2022:i:1:p:134-153
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.46661/revmetodoscuanteconempresa.4473
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account deficit; panel Logit model; MENA countries; macroeconomic variables; déficit por cuenta corriente; modelo Logit de panel; países MENA; variables macroeconómicas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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